Friday the 13th on the stock exchanges. The JSW contract and the canceled tender in the spotlight
Friday's session on the Warsaw trading floor was marked by a market tug of war. Although global markets are hopeful about the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, stock exchanges are currently showing only temporary glimpses of the buyers' advantage. The main indices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange ended the day slightly lower, preparing for the upcoming week of truth by the world's most important central banks.
The session on the WSE did not bring any breakthrough and rather maintained the state of play from previous sessions. The WIG20 index started the day with a half-percent drop, which it quickly made up for, but until the opening of the session on Wall Street (an hour earlier due to the time change in the USA) it consolidated just below the reference point. With the US indices rising at the opening, it broke into positive territory for a moment, but it did not last long as the S&P500 and Nasdaq weakened.
A high correlation between WIG20 and DAX was visible throughout the day. Investors are entering the weekend with mixed feelings, but all eyes are already on the third week of March, where decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the central banks of England, Japan and China await them. On Friday, a lot depended on oil again. When its prices tried to stabilize during the day, the markets tried to make up for losses, and when in the afternoon the price of “black gold” began to gain over 1%, the indices retreated.
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Ultimately, WIG20 fell by 0.51%, the broad WIG index dropped by 0.41%. The mid-cap segment did slightly better, as the mWIG40 index cosmetically gained 0.04%, while the sWIG80 lost 0.38%. The turnover on the broad market amounted to PLN 2.13 billion, of which PLN 1.77 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
When Polish investors turned off their monitors, the German DAX was losing 0.6%, the British FTSE 100 also dropped by 0.5%, and the French CAC 40 was losing 1%. The mood was similar overseas – the S&P 500 fell by 0.5% and the technological Nasdaq by 0.6%. Investors had to digest the information about a strong revision of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 (down to 0.7% from 1.4%).
Oil dictates the terms. Analyst comment
However, the main actor in the market spectacle remains crude oil, which has become a barometer of geopolitical fear. Although there are signs that the US attacks on Iran are slowly subsiding, the markets remain hostage to the situation in the region. Raw material logistics has become a common denominator for all asset classes.
“In the past week, all asset classes are very closely interconnected. Both the bond market, the currency market, the stock market and the raw material market, and the common denominator is, of course, crude oil. It dictates the conditions and directions of quotations. And as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, this state of affairs may persist,” Rafał Sadoch, an analyst at BM mBank, said in an interview with PAP Biznes.
According to the expert, high prices of energy raw materials force central banks to revise their inflation forecasts, which directly affects stock valuations.
“The market is gradually starting to value a longer period of elevated oil prices due to the fact that there is no end in sight to the war in the Middle East. This primarily strengthens the dollar on the currency market and generates an outflow of capital from risk. Due to this, the stock market is losing,” Sadoch added.
Poor construction and better bank ratings
The biggest burden on the blue chip portfolio today was the construction sector represented by Budimex, whose shares were devalued by 4.09%. The company received a painful blow in the form of invalidation of the selection of its offer in the PKP PLK tender worth over PLN 1 billion. Since the beginning of March, the price of the construction giant has already dropped by over 15%, which has affected the entire WIG-Construction sub-index.
At the opposite extreme were banks, which started to lick their wounds after a difficult beginning of March. With a slightly calmer market, investors used the time to buy bank shares, counting on generous dividends, which translated into increases in PKO BP (0.58%) and Alior Bank (0.41%). Pekao's shares grew slightly more modestly (0.29%). However, Santander Bank Polska (-0.94%) and mBank (-0.35%) were in decline. The entire WIG-Banki gained 0.32%.
Among the other growth leaders in WIG20, it is worth mentioning PZU (1.62%), which supported the index with its relative strength, and PGE (1.67%), which managed to break through, temporarily ignoring negative reports about the need to pay PLN 605 million to the Price Difference Payment Fund.
JSW with a contract, Grupa Azoty with a new opening
There was also no shortage of emotions on the broader market. JSW stood out in the mWIG40 index (1.75%), although during the day the price gained even more than 5%. The company announced the signing of a key contract with ArcelorMittal Poland for the supply of coking coal in 2026, the estimated value of which is a gigantic amount of PLN 2.1 billion.
Grupa Azoty also put hope into the hearts of shareholders, as after a disastrous start to the year (+22.5% decline to March) it is starting to build an upward trend. Today, the company's share price increased by 4%, which was a reaction to the announcements of the new president, Marcin Celejewski, about building a “new Grupa Azoty” by restructuring and sorting out relations with bankers.
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