GDP growth according to the central projection path will amount to 3.9%. in 2026, and in 2027 and 2028 – 2.9 percent. According to the central projection path, inflation at the end of 2026 will be 2.3%, at the end of 2027 – 2.4%, and at the end of 2028 – 2.3%. How does this compare to the previous screening?
Last November NBP analysts forecast that GDP in 2026 will increase by 3.7% and inflation will amount to 2.9%. This means that the forecast for economic dynamics increased by 0.2 percentage points, and at the same time the inflation projection decreased by as much as 0.6 percentage points.
“After being reduced to 2.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2025, in the following years CPI inflation will remain at a similar, but slightly lower level. In 2026, price increases will be limited by the weakening cost pressure related to the declining wage dynamics and increasing competition from suppliers from China,” NBP said in Friday's “Inflation Report” containing the inflation projection.
“After an increase of 3.6% in 2025, in 2026 the dynamics of national GDP will accelerate to 3.9%. […]which is expected to contribute to this period culmination of the absorption of EU funds […]. In the longer projection horizon Reducing the use of these funds will translate into a slowdown in investment and economic activity” – indicated in the report published on Friday.
