Apartment prices are breaking records. Buying your own M in Poland is becoming more and more difficult
Rising housing prices have made it difficult for many people own M is receding despite the increase in wages. Data from Otodom Analytics, Rankomat and RynekPierwotny.pl show that In the largest metropolises, the income threshold is currently record high. In Warsaw, an average apartment costs almost PLN 1 million, and the real availability remains the lowest in the country.
Read also: How much do you have to earn to be in the 1 percent? the richest Poles? We estimated it [KWOTY]
How much do you have to earn to buy a 50 sq m apartment?
Let's make some model assumptions: apartment with an area of 50 sq m, own contribution 20%, loan for 30 years and interest rate of approx. 7-7.5%. In such a scenario, banks usually expect that the installment will not exceed 30-35%. net income.
This means that in the most expensive cities, the required income significantly exceeds the national average.
The share of the installment in income
|
rankomat.pl
See also: High tax refund for spouses. Check before the tax office does it
Rankomat's analyzes show that couple earning PLN 9,000 PLN net per month has the creditworthiness to buy an apartment in many cities, but not necessarily in the largest metropolises. – This income may turn out to be insufficient in the case of a purchase in Wrocław, Gdańsk, Kraków or Warsaw – points out Jarosław Sadowski, chief analyst at Rankomat.
The situation with lower own contribution is even more demanding. In the case of 10 percent own contribution, the couple must earn at least:
- PLN 12,060 net in Warsaw,
- PLN 11,160 net in Krakow,
- PLN 10,530 net in Gdańsk.
This levels well above the median salary.
Income required
|
rankomat.pl
Worth reading: Is investing in an apartment still a good idea? This is how much you can earn [WYLICZENIA]
Availability of apartments: Warsaw is the most difficult, Katowice is the easiest
Otodom Analytics data shows the scale of the problem. In Warsaw, an average 55-square-meter developer's apartment costs approximately PLN 999,000. zloty. This means that an average resident of the capital would have to spend as much as 77 full gross salaries to purchase the premises.
— The average price of a 55-square-meter developer apartment in the capital is already PLN 999,000. zloty. That's practically a million for a standard two-bedroom apartment, and it's an amount that bets the capital among the most expensive European markets. Especially the price-to-income ratio is high – says Katarzyna Kuniewicz, market research director of Otodom Analytics.
However, if we make a realistic assumption that ghouseholds save 25%. income, the time needed to buy a flat increases dramatically. In Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław it is approximately 26 years. In Poznań, Łódź and Katowice – about 20 years.
The differences between cities are huge. The availability ranking, calculated by the number of square meters that can be purchased for one average salary, is as follows:
- Katowice – 0.82 sq m
- Łódź – 0.74 sq m
- Poznań – 0.75 sq m
- Kraków – 0.68 sq m
- Wrocław – 0.66 sq m
- Gdańsk – 0.64 sq m
- Warsaw – only 0.60 sq m.
This means that despite the highest salaries in the country, the capital offers the lowest real availability of apartments.
— Warsaw functions as a city with the lowest real purchasing power despite nominally the highest wages. Kraków and Wrocław are approaching this level. The counterpoint is Łódź and Katowice, where the ratio of earnings to prices is the healthiest, emphasizes Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
Creditworthiness is growing, but prices are rising faster
Theoretically, the situation of borrowers has improved over the last year. Creditworthiness increased by an average of 19%.mainly due to falling interest rates and rising wages.
As Jarosław Sadowski explains, couple with an income of PLN 8,000 Today, PLN 559,000 net can be obtained. PLN of the loan, i.e. by 16%. more than a year earlier. In the case of a family earning PLN 20,000 PLN net capacity increased by 22%.
The problem, however, is this housing prices are rising just as fast.
— Even though we nominally earn more and more, housing prices are rising just as fast, which means our purchasing power is stagnant. In Warsaw, the average salary today allows you to buy only about 0.6 square meters of an apartment – says Paweł Jarząbek, market research and analysis manager at Otodom.
The historical perspective is even more telling. — For the average monthly salary in Warsaw, we can now buy the same number of square meters as during the crisis in 2008. The increase in wages was entirely consumed by the increase in real estate prices, adds Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
Creditworthiness
|
rankomat.pl
Read: Sustainable office buildings in Warsaw. Skanska shows what really matters
Apartment prices are rising faster than buyers can afford
Experts point out that rising housing prices result in a shrinking offer available to average-earning people.
— In the following months the availability of housing loans will most likely increase slowly, and the pace of improvement may be accelerated by further interest rate cuts – predicts Marek Wielgo, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
At the same time, he emphasizes that the limited supply of affordable housing remains a problem. In many cities, apartments available to average households are disappearing faster than new ones appear.
The situation is particularly difficult in Warsaw. There, the secondary market is no longer a real price alternative.
— In Warsaw, any cheaper alternative for people just entering the market has simply disappeared. You have to work just as long for a second-hand apartment as for a new one, emphasizes Paweł Jarząbek from Otodom.
How much can an average Pole buy with his salary?
High average salaries in the largest cities do not fully reflect reality. Median earnings are keya level that better reflects the income of a typical employee.
In Warsaw, the median is approx. PLN 9,749 gross and is as much as 31 percent higher. lower than average. This means that for most residents, buying a flat is even more difficult than official statistics suggest.
— The average salary greatly distorts realitybecause it is overestimated by the group of the highest earners. As a result, for most people, the increase in salaries does not bring them closer to their own apartment – emphasizes Paweł Jarząbek.
Forecasts: whether it will be easier to buy a flat
Experts are moderately optimistic. Expected interest rate cuts may improve creditworthiness, but will not solve the structural problem of high prices.
— Not only how much we earn is of great importance, but also where we want to buy an apartment. The income, which is not enough in the largest cities, may be sufficient in smaller towns – emphasizes Jarosław Sadowski.
This means that the decision to buy an apartment is increasingly becoming a compromise between location and financial burden.
Owning your own apartment is becoming more and more of a challenge
The data is clear: Despite rising salaries, buying a flat is not becoming easier. In the largest cities, the entry barrier remains very high, and Warsaw is the absolute record holder in this respect.
Buying an average apartment today means a financial commitment for decades. In many cases, it requires an income well above the national average.
For an increasing number of people, owning their own M is not so much a matter of choice, but a long-term financial goal requiring high income, creditworthiness and readiness to make long-term sacrifices.
