The economist emphasized that weather conditions had a particular impact on industry and construction. Although the construction sector has a greater chance of making up for losses in the coming months, the industry – which has a larger share in GDP – may encounter more difficulties.
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According to Benecki, GDP growth in the first quarter may amount to 3.6%. up to 3.8 percent year to year. The growth forecast for the entire year 2026 is around 3.7%.i.e. at the level of the bank's previous forecasts.
The weather has weakened the industry, but the Central European region offers hope
Rafał Benecki pointed out that in February the increase in industrial production may amount to only 1%. year to year. Weaker data in this sector and in construction are largely the result of weather conditions. However, the economist noted that signals from the Central European region indicate a slow recovery of industry, which may have a positive impact on the Polish economy in the future.
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— Weaker industrial and construction production data can largely be explained by weather factors. This is confirmed by the fact that significant declines in production were recorded in energy-intensive sectors. However, other signals, such as foreign orders from the entire Central European region, indicate a slow recovery of industry in this part of the continent, Benecki said.
Consumption is the key driver of growth
Despite a difficult start to the year, the Polish economy is still based on strong domestic demand. Retail sales data indicate good consumption conditions. According to Benecki, public investments, which were also affected by the weather, should accelerate in the coming months.
— Domestic demand remains the main driver of growth in Poland, as evidenced by favorable retail sales data, confirming the good condition of consumer demand, the economist emphasized. He added that improving economic sentiment in Europe, especially in Germany, may additionally support the Polish economy by increasing exports and consumption in the region.
Exports and investments still under pressure
Exports, which did not play a key role in the Polish economy in 2025, may become more important in 2026. Benecki pointed out that although the recovery in the German defense sector will not bring quick benefits for Poland, the automotive sector in Germany may soon see improvement.
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— We are counting mainly on the traditional export component, i.e. the automotive industry, because the arms sector may not translate into the Polish economic situation in such a short time. Internal demand in the EU also remains an important potential factor in the revival of Polish exports, said Benecki.
At the same time, the economist drew attention to delays in private investments, which may become a serious barrier to further economic growth. — Without a revival of private investment in the industrial sector, it will be difficult to maintain the current rate of economic growth, he emphasized.
Deflation of imported goods and the interest rate outlook
The process of deflation in imported goods is gaining importance in the Polish economy. Benecki forecasts that the reference interest rate in Poland may fall to 3.25%, and the next rate cut will take place at the March meeting of the Monetary Policy Council.
— Our forecasts are based on the belief that the process of disinflation and even deflation in imported goods may be permanent and spread to other European countries, said the economist. He added that the average annual inflation in Poland in 2026 should amount to 1.9%. up to 2.2 percent
Demographic challenges and the importance of migration policy
Another challenge for the Polish economy is the decline in employment resulting from demographic factors. Benecki noted that the shrinking working-age population negatively affects potential GDP growth.
— The dominant problem is the shrinking population of people of working age. This shows that the topic of reasonable, controlled migration policy is crucial today for the economy to grow quickly, said the economist. He added that the return of companies to investing is equally important to maintain the pace of economic growth.
Public investments and innovation as the key to development
According to Benecki, increased defense spending may paradoxically help develop innovation in Poland. History shows that military spending often involves intensive research and development, which could spur innovation.
— However, it is crucial that a significant part of the orders goes to the private sector, as was the case in South Korea or Israel, where military innovations 'spillover' into the civilian sector – noted the economist. In the long term, business scaling and the development of financial markets such as venture capital and private equity funds will also be crucial for the Polish economy.
