The current recession, understood by all – Economists: Risks of crisis “à la Greece” if deficits are not cut
Romania may face a crisis similar to the one in Greece if the politicians do not urgently manage the budget deficits: EU funds could disappear, credits would become more expensive, and “the generous people who will come to power will no longer find resources to finance public expenses”, draws the attention of economist Radu Nechita. But we are not in a financial collapse, all the economists consulted by Adevărul agree.
If we do not take concrete measures, we end up in the situation of Greece many years ago. Photo by Shutterstock
Asked what Romania can do to overcome these difficult moments, Radu Nechita, professor of economics at UBB told “truth” that the Power and the Opposition must understand that it is no longer possible to have double or triple deficits compared to the maximum allowed by the European treaties, because otherwise we end up like Greece.
Specifying that, currently, the crisis in Romania is not like the one in 2009, the economist said that it could become if urgent measures are not taken. “No, it's not like in 2009, it's not worse, but it can get worse. That is, if the politicians (power and opposition alike) don't understand that double or triple deficits compared to the maximum allowed by the European treaties are no longer possible, we know very well what can happen: Greece. The “generous” will come to power, but they will no longer receive money (without funds from the EU, we would have been in a serious recession a long time ago). from the EU, even from investors who are satisfied with low interest rates. The credits will dry up, and the few that will be attracted will have huge interest rates, the creditors came and gave them the ax, without caring about the long-term growth. That's exactly what awaits us.”Radu Nechita declared for “truth“.
Gresoi: It is a sensitive moment, because the fiscal space is narrow
For his part, analyst Silviu Gresoi explained to “Adevărul” that it is a totally different situation compared to the 2009 crisis, which had external causes and was a financial, systemic one, generated by the blockage of the credit markets.
“The situation in the country is different, and the technical recession announced by the INS shows a slowdown in the economy, not a financial collapse. Currently, we do not have a bank blockade or a funding freeze, but mainly an internal problem, related to our fiscal position.
Romania enters this slowdown phase with very large deficits around 9% of GDP in 2024 and over 7% in 2025 and with public debt rapidly rising to 55–60% of GDP. Markets are not looking at the statements, but at the trajectory of the deficit and debt. As long as these imbalances remain high, we will pay a high risk premium and corresponding interest”he explained.
The analyst pointed out that “it is not a worse scenario than in 2009 and none similar in mechanism, but it is a sensitive moment, because the budget space is narrow“.
“The difference will be made by fiscal discipline in the coming years. The measures for recovery depend on consistency, not on a single package: the gradual reduction of the deficit, the control of recurrent expenses, the protection of investments and the absorption of European funds”the analyst told “truth“.
Negrescu: The evolution of the economy was in “saw teeth”
Asked how we ended up in a technical recession, shortly after we entered the budget crisis, the analyst Adrian Negrescu declared for “Adevărul” that the evolution of the economy was in “saw teeth“. “We've had better quarters and worse quarters, mainly because of the decline in sales. We're past the peak of last fall's budget crisis, otherwise we were in a huge economic crisis,” the analyst told “truth“.
He explained that the recession started when Marcel Ciolacu was prime minister, in the first and second quarters of 2024 and intensified in 2025 due to the increase in taxes and the decrease in purchasing power.
“We are not like in 2009. The economy is much more resilient. The large impact companies (with a very high turnover – ed.) have restructured. The crisis belongs to the budget sector, especially from an economic perspective. We have no added value!
We need to define very clearly what we want, and the first step is the recovery package, which will probably be approved next week. I hope it will be a more extensive calendar”said Adrian Negrescu for “truth“, stating that labor taxes should be reduced, especially for low wages, and the value of meal vouchers should be increased.
“Not through aid of 300 lei for Easter and Christmas, but by increasing meal vouchershe said.
Asked how we could overcome these difficult moments, the analyst specified that “we must reduce inflation, taxation, increase the value of meal vouchers which are a great help for employees”.
“We need to define an ecosystem, including through public-private partnerships, to increase exports, including on the automotive, agricultural and IT side. We can no longer make investments of the “shaorma with everything” type.
The most important help is to stop paying fees and taxes, to let the economic environment work according to the principle of supply and demand. In this way, in the 3rd and 4th quarter we will have economic growth”Negrescu declared for “truth“.
SMEs demand urgent measures to relaunch the economy
The official data published by the National Institute of Statistics confirm Romania's entry into technical recession, after two consecutive quarters of decrease in the Gross Domestic Product. The negative evolution in the fourth quarter of 2025 marks a sharp slowdown of the economy and confirms the signals sent in recent months by the entrepreneurial environment.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, this evolution is not only a macroeconomic indicator, but a directly felt economic reality (80% of enterprises declare that they have been affected): reduced orders, decreased consumption, postponement of investments, increased operational costs and increased caution in development decisions.
The Patronage of Young Entrepreneurs from Romania requests the urgent adoption of a consistent package of measures for the economic recovery, which will provide predictability and confidence to the business environment:
• ensuring fiscal stability and avoiding untimely legislative changes;
• acceleration of public investments and the absorption of European funds;
• reduction of the administrative burden and accelerated digitization of the state-entrepreneur relationship;
• dedicated tools and programs to support SMEs and startups:
◦ accelerating the implementation of the StartUp Nation program;
◦ launching a STUDENT FIRST COMPANY program – cultivating the entrepreneurial spirit and encouraging entrepreneurship among students;
◦ launch of a START-UP REVOLUTION program – 500 funded start-ups/county with defined pre-allocation for each county;
◦ launch of the IMM INVEST program – guarantees of up to 90% of the value of loans for investments and working capital;
◦ launching a SCALE-UP program – supporting SMEs with a minimum of 10 years of experience to increase industrial production, regionally predefined projects by fields of activity and types of investments;
◦ launch of a DIGITAL SME program – vouchers for the purchase of digitalization packages for micro-enterprises (access to software at a subsidized price, website expenses, social media, online marketing training, e-commerce, digital mentors, electronic signature).
“The entry into technical recession is a signal that cannot be ignored. The annual growth of 0.6% does not compensate for the severe contraction of the last quarter. SMEs need stability, clear measures and a real economic recovery plan. Without consistent interventions, we risk a prolonged period of stagnation, which will affect investments, employment and the competitiveness of the Romanian capital”, said Daniel Urîtu, PTIR President.
According to him, economic recovery must become a strategic priority. Romania's economy needs policies oriented towards sustainable growth, competitiveness and the consolidation of domestic capital.
