On Monday, PKO BP Bank published an updated list of forecasts for the most important economic indicators. It shows that the bank expects an acceleration in the economy.
“We forecast an acceleration of GDP growth in 2026 to 3.7%. from 3.5 percent in 2025. It will be the result of a significant increase in the contribution of investments to GDP dynamics, with a slight reduction in the contribution of other categories. Investments will increase by 12% throughout the year, which will be driven by the use of EU funds (KPO and cohesion funds) and the implementation of multi-year infrastructure projects supporting the beginning revival of private investments. Private consumption will grow slightly slower than in 2025 (by 3.4%), mainly due to weaker growth in real income. The good economic situation in the country combined with the weaker condition of the European economy will maintain the negative contribution of net exports to GDP,” PKO BP economists wrote.
At the same time, the bank's analysts expect a further decline in inflation. According to the Central Statistical Office's flash estimate, at the end of December 2025, inflation in Poland was 2.4 percent, while at the end of 2026 it is expected to be 2.1 percent.
Quarterly and annual forecasts of PKO BP macroeconomists regarding Poland.
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PKO Research, Central Statistical Office
“The scale of disinflation at the end of 2025 was stronger than expected. In 2026, the disinflation trend will gradually fade away, but will bring CPI stabilization at a comfortable level for the Monetary Policy Council in the range of 2-2.5% and with balanced risk factors. The beginning of the year is a period of increased uncertainty of inflation forecasts due to the revision of the inflation basket and the implementation of a new classification of consumer goods and services,” PKO BP economists said.
The Monetary Policy Council will respond with at least two interest rate cuts
In their opinion, the Monetary Policy Council will continue to reduce interest rates this year. Currently, the main NBP interest rate, the reference rate, is 4%. “In 2026, we see room for two interest rate cuts, concentrated in the first half of 2026, which will bring the reference rate to 3.50 percent. This target level means stabilization of the real interest rate at a level above 1 percent.” — wrote PKO BP economists.
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The list of forecasts shows that the current account deficit will deepen this year. According to PKO BP economists, it will increase to 1.6%. GDP from 0.9 percent estimated in 2025. “The deterioration of the current balance will be the result of a slightly deeper goods deficit than last year (1.7% of GDP vs. 1.5% of GDP), as well as a smaller surplus in trade in services, and deeper deficits on primary and secondary income accounts,” added the PKO BP publication.
The bank's forecasts also show that the public finance deficit at the end of 2026 will decrease slightly, but will still remain at a high level. “Forecasts assume a decline in the deficit in 2026 to 6.5%. GDP from 6.9 percent GDP in 2025 with an increase in public debt to 66.2 percent. GDP in 2026 remains valid,” PKO BP economists said.
