Just a few months ago, the so-called Goldilocks Economy (an economy neither too cool nor too warm) seemed to be an original idea for a scenario for the Polish economy. In August 2025, we joked that this was Goldilocks as best as we could — economic growth is slowly accelerating, leaving production capacity unused all the time, and wage pressure is clearly decreasing, improving the inflation prospects. Now this optimistic, but also terribly boring scenario is almost the binding consensus for 2026. This scenario and belief in 4%. GDP growth also seems to be sponsored by the recent weeks of increases in Polish stock indices.
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However, the economy is actually kicking into high gear. Already in the last quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate will exceed 4%. y/y New growth engines are joining. The investment dynamics will increase, driven successively by energy transformation projects financed from KPO funds and, in subsequent quarters, by projects that are either derivatives of the first ones or completely new versions of private projects. The above-mentioned drop in inflation pressure, in fact much stronger than expected by the National Bank of Poland, resulted in deeper and faster reductions in interest rates.
We believe that the MPC has not said the last word on this issue. In 2026, lower rates should further stimulate demand for corporate credit and demand for household credit, both consumer and mortgage. On the housing market we are dealing with the so-called the phenomenon of delayed demand, see the impact of high NBP rates in previous years. This deferred demand, estimated by us on the scale of even the average annual production of new loans, will be able to flow out in 2026 thanks to the rapidly reduced NBP rates.
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Growth engines: investments, loans and consumption
Low, barely exceeding 2%. , inflation will accompany us throughout 2026, supporting the consumer's purchasing power. Despite the lack of fireworks on the labor market (typical lately “low hiring, low firing”), consumption dynamics should be close to 4%. really.
Commentators devote a lot of attention to Polish fiscal policy and the growing public debt. However, we do not see any reasons for major turmoil on the Polish bond market. The debt is mainly purchased by domestic players (commercial banks). Foreign investors are consistently underweight. The old paradigm is still in force, according to which, in the case of Poland, economic growth is a panacea for all fiscal challenges.
The mentioned low inflation and reductions in NBP rates are further factors reducing the fiscal risk (debt servicing costs) for Poland in the near future. Let's add to this that in the US, the thesis of a large positive productivity shock will be pushed by the likely new head of the Fed, Kevin Hassett, which will ultimately push inflation down and allow the currently constantly elevated inflation rate to be ignored. The result will be, as President Trump desired, deeper cuts in Fed rates. This will further insure the debt markets in Emerging Markets countries. Polish assets should also benefit from this phenomenon.
For some time now, there has been some optimism among investors regarding the hope for an end to the war in Ukraine. It is difficult to predict the details of such a scenario today, but investors guided by simple heuristics can react with an increase in risk appetite, which should also support Polish assets.
Global risks and technological revolutions
What could go wrong?
However iconoclastic it may sound, the global economy hangs on “strings”, or if you prefer, a series of quite high assumptions. In the US, the positive scenario is based on vague stories about a productivity shock and the spillover of investments from the AI industry (the main driver of the capex increase in 2025) to other sectors. There is stagnation in Europe, and the only glimmer of hope is the fiscal stimulus promised by Germany. Yes, this factor, despite the local drivers of the Polish cycle, is also important for the growth rate of Polish exports and GDP.
And so 2026, like the previous 3 years, will certainly be largely dominated by issues related to new technologies, including genAI and blockchain. It is this second technology that is expected to revolutionize payments and perhaps threaten today's industry giants.
As for AI, there will be a murderous race here, in which the leader will change every few months. There are also disturbing reports about the so-called China's Manhattan Project (a secret strategic project aimed at achieving processor and AI sufficiency). Can China close the chip production gap with the USA/Taiwan faster than expected?
It is still not obvious how big a threat the “burst” of the AI bubble is. We do not believe that this phenomenon must occur. We are dealing with a revolutionary technology and companies taking part in the AI race have highly diversified revenues and large capital cushions. However, with the difficult commercialization of AI solutions, market turbulence and problems for smaller players, software houses, may occur.
However, in developed countries, especially in the USA, we can also witness growing social resistance to artificial intelligence as a threat to privacy and jobs. It is possible that anti-AI demands will soon appear on the banners of political parties.
