What chances do Craiova University and FCSB have to go further, after the results of Thursday evening

The university hosted Sparta knowing that a draw would secure their place among the top 24 teams in the competition and, implicitly, further qualification. In the 88th minute the score was 1-1, but the guests scored to leave Banie with all the points.

Craiova University, in an encouraging situation

The university remained at 7 points, a dowry that should be enough to stay at least in 24th place.

Simulations carried out by statisticians confirm this. According to Football Meets Data, the probability that Olteni will catch the TOP 24 and compete in the play-off for the eighth is 96%. In the last stage, they will play in Athens, with AEK. Even a point there would dissipate any excitement.

For the moment, the white-blues occupy the 23rd place. Immediately below them, Lincoln, also with 7 points, but a lower goal difference.

Of the teams ranked lower than 24th, only 3 more have a mathematical chance of accessing the places that ensure the continuation of the competition: KuPS and Zrinjski with 6 points each, Breidablik with 5.

In the last stage, KuPS will play in London, with Crystal Palace, Zrinjski will receive the visit of the last ranked, Rapid Vienna, and Breidablik will play in Strasbourg, with the leader of the Conference League.

Along with Craiova, the favorite to advance in the competition is Zrinjski, with a probability of 64%. For that, he needs to get at least one point with the bottom ranked team, Rapid Vienna, and Lincoln to lose in Warsaw, with Legia.

Craiova must be overtaken by two of Lincoln, KuPS, Zrinjski and Breidablik to lose the TOP 24, an unlikely scenario.

Much more complicated for FCSB to advance to the Europa League

The spectacular success with Feyenoord, 4-3 after being led by 1-3, keeps the Romanian champions in the qualification books.

FCSB is currently 27th in the Europa League with 6 points. Celtic, the team in 24th place, the first to ensure advancement in the competition, has 7. The red-blues will play in Zagreb, with Dinamo, respectively at home, with Fenerbahce. A first condition to hope for further qualification is to collect points from these confrontations, ideally at least 4.

The same statisticians calculated that FCSB would only have a 22% chance of catching the TOP 24. Either way, it's a huge jump from pre-Feyenoord calculations. This victory increased the chances of the red-blues by 14.41%.

On the other hand, it reduced Feyenoord's chances in the TOP 24 by 24.44%.