US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Sunday's meeting in Geneva “the most productive day” of the entire negotiation process. Together with Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president's office, he presented a revised draft that is intended to clearly guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty.
This was a reaction to sharp criticism of the original 28-point document, the pro-Russian fragments of which caused outrage. Nevertheless, many issues remain unclear. Many points have been softened in terms of language, but their content has not been changed.
How does Ukraine react to the developments?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows a clear willingness to cooperate. He is well aware of how dependent his country is on US support, especially after US President Donald Trump once again called him ungrateful. At the same time, Kiev makes clear that forced cession of territory or weakening of the Ukrainian armed forces will never be acceptable.
Who actually sets the course of action in Washington?
There is an open debate in the United States about the course of action to end the war in Ukraine. Trump is pushing for a quick breakthrough and is sticking to his vision to be able to present peace as his own achievement as soon as possible – preferably before Thanksgiving.
At the same time, prominent Republican senators such as Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell are extremely harsh: they consider the project naive or even document that could come from Moscow rather than Washington. These conflicting signals significantly weaken America's negotiating position.
What is Europe's position?
Europe is surprisingly united. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are jointly pushing for introducing significant changes to the American project. The European alternative project, which was presented in parallel in Geneva, places great emphasis on actually guaranteeing Ukraine's security.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak during a press conference after closed talks on the U.S. plan to end the war in Ukraine in Geneva, November 23, 2025.FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP / AFP
For example, he assumes that the Ukrainian army should not be limited to 600,000. soldiers, but set at 800,000. Moreover, Europe rejects any form of recognition of Russian territorial gains. Behind the scenes, the tone is even more pronounced: leaders do not want to allow Ukraine to be forced to conclude an “unfavorable agreement”.
What controversial issues remain unresolved?
Despite diplomatic reassurance the most important lines of conflict remain unchanged. The question of whether the current front line should serve as the basis for future negotiations is highly controversial – for Ukraine it would mean de facto recognition of the current status quo, which benefits Russia. The question of how to deal with Russian war crimes also remains open, as the United States in particular has not completely ruled out a general amnesty.
Why is it primarily Russia that benefits from this?
The lack of agreement between the United States and Europe allows Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to maintain his maximum demands while increasing military pressure. The heavy drone attack on Kharkiv, which claimed the lives of at least four people on Sunday, shows how Russia is “supporting” the negotiations: using force to weaken Ukraine's negotiating position. A frozen conflict along the current front line would be an ideal strategic situation for the Kremlin.
What will the future course of events look like?
Further talks are planned this week. Trump's original deadline — deliberately set for Thanksgiving to ideally appear in national coverage as the “peace president” — now appears much more relaxed.
What will now be decisive is whether the United States, Ukraine and Europe find a common course of action that will be more than just a cosmetic agreement. If this fails, Russia will be able to continue to benefit from the West's ambiguous position and use its military and political means of pressure unhindered.
