The provisions of the peace plan for Ukraine contain a political game for the face of the West, the future of Ukraine and Putin's dreams of an imperial return. Former counselor at the permanent mission of the Russian Federation to the UN, Boris Bondarew, reveals the behind-the-scenes of this game and explains directly: why the “peace plan” was doomed to failure from the very beginning.
The plan to end the war in Ukraine, proposed by the Donald Trump administration, caused – completely predictably – a storm of comments in the media, the Internet and among experts. It is clear that the project largely favors Russia.
However, it cannot be said that it meets all of Moscow's most extreme demands. Even if Trump shakes the Kremlin's hand, Putin is not going to shake it.
This plan doesn't give him what he wants most – complete domination.
The draft consisting of 28 points imposes far-reaching restrictions and heavy obligations on Ukraine, which means what it means in practice
punishing the victim for daring to defend himself against the aggressor.
It is true that the first point emphasizes the need to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty, but subsequent provisions emphasize this they actually undermine sovereignty.
Ukraine could not maintain an army of more than 600,000. soldiers – although this is a higher limit than what Russia itself demanded. Additionally, Kiev would be permanently blocked on its way to NATO, and the Alliance itself would not be able to accept it into its ranks. From the point of view of international law, this solution is illogical and contrary to the Charter of the United Nations.
However, the plan also contains provisions that Moscow is unlikely to like. At least USD 100 billion. (approx. PLN 415 billion) from Russia's frozen assets would go – under US supervision – to the Ukraine reconstruction project.
It is difficult to imagine that Putin will enthusiastically accept the idea of financing the reconstruction of a country that he himself devastated
However, this is not yet the point that hurts Moscow the most.
Leaving Ukraine with an army of 600,000. soldiers could be considered a kind of security guarantee. However, there are many question marks: what would be the real combat value of this army, who would control possible reductions and what type of weapons could be supplied to it.
If the army were limited to only light infantry weapons, its numbers would essentially become a symbolic gesture. All these issues require clarification, and Russian diplomats will certainly demand that every detail be clearly defined.
The final part of the plan is particularly telling – it assumes the establishment of the so-called Peace Council, which would be chaired by Donald Trump and which would oversee the implementation of the agreement. For Putin, such an arrangement is absolutely unacceptable. It would mean that Trump would judge his actions.
Yet Putin is waging this war to prove that he has the right to co-decide the fate of the world on an equal footing with the US president and other global leaders.
He fights for imagined respect, for equal status – even dominance. With such a worldview, it would be unfair for him to put anyone before himself, especially someone as unpredictable as Trump humiliation and a sign of weakness.
“Putin cannot let this happen”
Another noteworthy element is the security guarantees for Ukraine, which in practice reflect NATO's mutual defense obligations. Russia's attack on Ukraine would be treated as an attack on the “transatlantic community”, and the US would coordinate a decisive military response. The problem is that there is little evidence that such a reaction will ever actually occur.
The West has repeatedly shown how afraid it is of a direct clash with Russia. So why should Ukrainians believe that in the event of another attack there will suddenly be readiness for a real war? There is no solid basis for this.
This is what makes these guarantees empty.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin during their summit in Alaska. United States, August 16, 2025Gavriil Grigorov / East News
For Putin, any US or NATO presence on Ukrainian territory after the war is a good thing absolutely unacceptable. One of his key goals is to reduce Ukraine to a state of strategic dependence — ensuring it never acts alone or limits Russian ambitions.
If NATO provided credible security guarantees to Ukraine – although few believe such guarantees would ever be fully realized – this would give Kiev political and military leverage against Russia. Putin cannot allow Ukraine to have any instruments capable of deterring future Russian pressure or aggression.
That is why Moscow will demand the elimination of all Western security guarantees for Kiev, unless Russia is explicitly given veto power.
She already presented this position during the talks in Istanbul in 2022.
The very appearance of such an initiative from the US signals – from Putin's point of view – that Washington is giving up. And not because he has suffered losses – in tanks, planes or soldiers – but because he is tired, afraid and wants to avoid further involvement at all costs.
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The “dead at birth” plan
This is the real meaning of this document. And Trump – as you might guess – doesn't understand it at all. He does not realize that he is discrediting not only himself, but also his country on the world stage. He does not understand that he is announcing the helplessness of a superpower that cannot defend its own interests.
He fails to notice that when a country pledges to support an ally, it cannot abandon this promise so ostentatiously.
For Trump, the concepts of “reputation” or “image damage” simply do not exist. But for Putin — and for the rest of the world — it is.
For Putin, this proposal is proof of his victory. If the US is ready to make such far-reaching concessions, it means – in his opinion – that it has given in and is ready to accept his demands. He is not interested in an agreement with Ukraine, only with the USA, where Washington will officially recognize its terms. Therefore, the provision on “Russia-NATO dialogue” will be crucial for the Kremlin. He will strive to expand it and make it the main axis of negotiations.
As part of this dialogue, he will restore the ultimatum from 2021, in which he demanded that NATO move back to its 1997 borders. For Putin, Ukraine is a secondary issue – something to be resolved as part of the broader US-Russian-NATO game for a new post-Cold War security order. Moscow has already determined what results it will consider acceptable and will enter the talks as a winner.
For these reasons, Trump's plan in its current form is effectively “dead at birth.”
Ukraine will not accept his termsbut will try to modify them while maintaining the appearance that it is still Trump's initiative. European countries will be forced to support it in this – they have no real choice. Russia will also reject the planconsidering it insufficient and inconsistent with her vision of total victory. Moscow does not want compromise or mediation – it wants unconditional surrender. He will certainly not agree to submit to Donald Trump's supervision.
Everything indicates that the document in its current form will either be completely rewritten or will ultimately end up in the trash.
