Ukraine is preparing to face the worst winter since the beginning of the war. According to an analysis published by Foreign Affairs by Jack Watling, a senior research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Russia aims to conquer Ukraine in three distinct stages — and the current military campaign is just the first of them.
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Heavy fighting in Donbas
Moscow had planned to take control of the city of Pokrovsk, a major logistics hub in the Donetsk region, by November 2024. However, Russian troops are nearly a year behind schedule. Although outnumbered, the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold out, inflicting significant casualties — more than 20,000 Russian troops eliminated monthly, according to the author's estimates.
Currently, Russia appears close to consolidating its control over the city's ruins as its drones cut off Ukrainian supply lines. The situation in Pokrovsk reflects a larger pattern: Russian forces are trying to encircle Ukrainian positions to the north and south, closing in on Kostiantynivka. New Russian attack drones and guided bombs are systematically hitting towns within range, causing massive destruction and civilian casualties in cities like Kramatorsk.
Recent advances along the Dnieper increase the risk to the city of Zaporozhye, and the fall of Donbas could open the way to a new major target — Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.
Diplomacy without effect
Over the past nine months, while international talks have focused on the idea of peace negotiations, Russia has stepped up its attacks. Although Kiev has repeatedly said it is open to dialogue, the lack of real pressure on Moscow has given President Vladimir Putin time to reconfigure his military strategy.
After nearly four years of war, both sides are showing signs of exhaustion, but neither seems ready to accept a peace deal. According to the analysis, Putin refuses any compromise and conditions a possible ceasefire on Ukraine's renunciation of sovereignty.
The three-step strategy
The Kremlin considers the conquest of Ukraine a long-term process structured in three stages. The first involves the occupation or destruction of a significant part of Ukrainian territory, so that the rest of the country depends on the will of Moscow. The goals include keeping the four regions already annexed and capturing Kharkiv, Nikolaev and Odessa — which would isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea.
The second stage would be to apply economic and political pressure, with the threat of another attack, to force Kiev to accept Russian control. The final step would be the full integration of Ukraine along the lines of Belarus.
For now, Russia is far from achieving the first goal. Its military hopes that the attrition of Ukrainian forces will allow it to gain ground, but mobilization is proving increasingly difficult.
Economic pressure, the decisive weapon
Russia's ability to continue the war depends heavily on income from energy exports. Falling global oil prices and Ukrainian attacks on refineries are gradually reducing Moscow's revenues. Watling suggests that if Western sanctions are strengthened and the “ghost fleet” — old ships carrying Russian oil under “flags of complacency” — are blocked, the Kremlin could be pushed into a severe economic crisis by 2026.
Ukraine's survival depends on the pace of aid
For Ukraine to endure, Western military support must become predictable and consistent. Not only the quantity of armaments is important, but also the regularity of deliveries. At the same time, continuous training of Ukrainian units according to Western standards is essential to reduce losses and improve defensive coordination.
