Why Gabriela Firea withdrew from the race for the Capital City Hall. “In the PSD, a moderately sovereignist, pragmatic group dominates”
The withdrawal of Gabriela Firea from the race for the Capital City Hall and the candidacy of Daniel Băluță redraws the balance of power in the PSD and may change the balance of the Coalition. Political scientist Costin Ciobanu and professor Antonio Momoc explain to “Adevărul” the implications and risks of this move.
Gabriela Firea and Daniel Băluță, photo collage. Source: The Truth Archive
Gabriela Firea announced that she is withdrawing from the race for the Capital City Hall and that she is handing over the leadership of PSD Bucharest to the mayor of Sector 4, Daniel Băluță. The decision comes at a time when the PNL-PSD Coalition is divided in the partial elections in December. Political scientist Costin Ciobanu and professor Antonio Momoc explain for “Adevărul” how it got here, who wins inside the PSD and what consequences may follow for the government.
The withdrawal of Gabriela Firea, a tactical step or the end of a stage
For Costin Ciobanu, Gabriela Firea's gesture is a “tactical withdrawal”, not a definitive exit from politics.
“It was clear that she did not have a first chance either to run or to win. If Băluță wins, Firea has little place in the party. If she loses, she can return to the foreground, including in the 2028 elections”says the political scientist.
Political scientist Costin Ciobanu. Source: facebook
He believes that Firea is using the moment to repair its image after 2024, when it was withdrawn from the race following the failure of the PSD-PNL joint candidacy. “It's a calculated move. Pay the bills and wait for the right moment to come back”adds Ciobanu.
However, Professor Antonio Momoc sees in Gabriela Firea's gesture a recognition of a momentary defeat. “It is not a good time for her. The situation inside the PSD does not favor her. Either she negotiated a future position, or she is marginalized. In any case, she no longer has the same political force”this is Momoc's opinion.
Who decided the “pro-Băluță” line
For Ciobanu, the appointment of Băluță is related to “symmetry” against the PNL, which elected a sector mayor, i.e. Ciprian Ciucu. “It's an important electoral test for both parties. The mayor of the capital is not just an administrator, but a potential president”he says.
Momoc offers a more internal reading: “In the PSD, a moderately sovereignist, pragmatic grouping dominates, which wants to maintain the balance between the pro-European direction and the national-social messages. Baluță is the candidate of this line, considered loyal and administrative.”
Communication specialist, Professor Antonio Momoc. Source: Facebook
Behind the designation, both analysts see a compromise between the PSD camps, but also a self-protection strategy for the central leaders, which transfers the electoral risk to the local level.
Nature, between attrition and strategic reserve
Costin Ciobanu shows that Firea is “eroded but still has potential”. “It lost two rounds of elections in Bucharest, but PSD lacks leaders to mobilize the electorate. In a suitable context, it can become relevant again at the national level“, he states.
Antonio Momoc is more blunt: “Her nature is worn not only electorally, but also politically. She did not understand how much the profile of the Bucharest voter has changed. PSD noticed this distance and went for a more pragmatic figure, such as Daniel Băluță.”
The new architecture of power in PSD
According to Ciobanu, after the failures of 2024, PSD is going through a rebalancing stage. “The party is counting on local leaders with electoral legitimacy, such as Lia Olguta Vasilescu, Claudiu Manda, Daniel Băluță. There is an ascent of mayors-performers. Fiera is entering a waiting period.”
Momoc emphasizes, however, that we cannot speak of a generational change: “It's a rotation within the same political class. Grindeanu, Băluță, Firea come from the same type of structure and formation. It's not a new generation, it's just a rearrangement of power.”
How big is the risk of a separate PSD-PNL competition
“PSD and PNL have unpleasant memories from the failed joint candidacy. If the elections for Bucharest turn into a national test, the pressure will be huge for the Coalition”warns the political scientist Ciobanu.
Antonio Momoc goes further: “Bucharest can become the scene of a vote of reproach against the big parties. The anti-system vote is strong, and PSD and PNL, together or separately, can miss the top two positions if they do not mobilize their electorate.”
An Avangarde poll, the survey house led by sociologist Marius Pieleanu, shows that Daniel Băluță (PSD) would get 25%, Ciprian Ciucu (PNL) 23%, Cătălin Drula (USR) 18%, Anca Alexandrescu (AUR/independent) 16% and Cristian Popescu Piedone 8%. The differences are within the margin of error, and vote fragmentation may decide the outcome.
The elections in the Capital – a test for the presidency
“The Mayor of Bucharest automatically becomes a national figure”emphasizes Ciobanu. “The result will be read as a validation of governance.”
Momoc confirms: “Those who finish on the podium, even if they deny the presidential intentions, will have ambitions. The position of mayor is a political springboard. Bucharest remains a test stage for future careers.”
The Fragmentation Scenario: How to Repeat the 2020–2024 Pattern
Ciobanu believes that a polarization between Băluță and Ciucu, both with an administrative profile, could leave room for a third candidate. “If the debate moves to national issues, Drula could take advantage. The populist bloc has less chance, but it can mess up the games.”
Momoc warns, however, that the single-lap system allows for major surprises: “With a small turnout, an anti-system candidate can win by 15-20 percent. That's the consequence of refusing to change the electoral law.”
Possible effects in the governing Coalition
For Costin Ciobanu, “the elections in the Capital will create winners and losers within the Coalition”. “If Ciucu wins, Bolojan and PNL will have moral ascendancy. If Băluță wins, Grindeanu will have to manage a new validated leader with claims. Anyway, the result will influence the dynamics of the government.”
Antonio Momoc believes that although the parties want stability, “a rupture is possible in the medium term”. “The result in Bucharest can produce a political earthquake. PSD has the ambition to be the dominant party and will not easily accept a loss in a symbolic city.“
We remind you that on Monday, the interim head of the PSD, Sorin Grindeanu, announced the next steps to formalize Daniel Băluță's candidacy for the Capital's mayor's office. At the same time, Gabriela Firea declared that she is handing over the baton of the PSD Bucharest organization to Daniel Băluță:
“We want to give him absolutely all the necessary and human tools, which are the most important, I say, our sincerity, the coagulation of the team, also the political force and the administrative force. That's why, together with the interim president Sorin Grindeanu and our colleagues from the six sectors, I decided to hand over the baton, from a political point of view, to my colleague Daniel Băluță, the baton of the Bucharest Municipality PSD Organization”.
