Article by Daniel Grigore – Published Monday, October 20, 2025, 11:41 / Updated Monday, October 20, 2025 11:41
Supercomputer Opta, the statistical model that simulates all Premier League matches based on its own rating system and betting odds, sees Arsenal as heavy favorites to win the title in England.
Stage 8 of the Premier League will end with Arsenal in first position. Victorious with Fulham, 1-0, the “gunners” reached 19 points: 3 over Manchester City, 4 over Bournemouth and Liverpool.
Considering the summer transfer window, Arsenal look better equipped than at any other time in recent history.
The course so far and the team available to Mikel Arteta make the “gunners” credited with the first chance at the title.
The supercomputer clarified after the last matches: Arsenal, the clear favorite for the title in the Premier League!
The Opta supercomputer generates, stage by stage, 10,000 simulations of the remaining matches in the Premier League season. After this weekend's games, Arsenal emerge as champions in 54.5% of simulations.
The main danger is Manchester City, champions in 17.3% of simulations. Immediately below the “citizens” comes the title champion, Liverpool, triumphant in 17.2% of cases. The “Cormorants” were extremely well placed just a few weeks ago, but the recent 3-game losing streak has dropped them down the pecking order.
The supercomputer is a statistical/algorithmic model that simulates the entire championship season 10,000 times, thus estimating the chances of various outcomes occurring. He works on the basis of the rating system developed by Opta, the so-called Power Ranking, and the odds offered by bookmakers.
That Power Ranking is a team rating system, on a scale from 0 to 100, where the worst team in the world gets zero and the best gets 100. Arsenal, for example, are at 100, followed by PSG (99.1) and Liverpool (99).
The best teams in the world at the moment, according to the Opta Power Ranking
The supercomputer predicts that Arsenal will collect around 79 points this season (simulation average is 78.59), well ahead of Liverpool (71.33) and Manchester City (70.96). Curiously, although Liverpool average more points than City in the 10,000 simulations, the Citizens finish first in more of them.
On the columns: the estimated position, the team, the number of estimated points, in how many of the simulations they win the title
Chelsea is credited with the fourth chance, champion in 4.6% of simulations. The European places, according to the simulation, would be filled by Crystal Palace (#5) and Aston Villa (#6), with Bournemouth close behind.
Newcastle, Tottenham and Manchester United would only finish in the middle of the table, places 9-11.
At the opposite pole, Wolves, Burnley and Leeds are the teams most likely to be relegated. Wolves fall in 69.4% of simulations, Burnley in 51.83% of them. Last relegated Leeds would have a close battle with West Ham and Nottingham Forest.
