The macro surroundings are a direct background for the movement. In the USA, partial suspension of the federal government workwhich suspends the publication of key data and conquers the demand for assets perceived as protection against devaluation of money. At the same time, the dollar is weakening, and gold beats further records, supported by the expectations of further foot discounts by the Fed.
However, they remain the most powerful demand fuel flows for spot funds. According to Farside combinations, American ETFs on Bitcoin recorded about $ 627 million on October 1. net influx, October 2 approx. $ 627 million, and on October 3 – nearly $ 985 million. (the leader was Blackrock Ibit). Already at the end of September, the CoinDesk industry service reported the renewal of investors' demand for these products. Such a series of positive inflows mechanically increase the constant demand for physical BTC, squeezing supply in the market circuit.
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Bitcoin near the summit
The market of derivative instruments is also conducive to growth. Open items on bitcoin's term contracts reached a record 32.6 billion dollars.which indicates a strong speculative impulse and the growing activity of professional players. Such an increase in lever can accelerate price movements up, but at the same time increases the market sensitivity to sudden profits.
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On the supply side, the delayed halving effect from 19-20 April 2024, which reduced the emission of new coins to 3.125 BTC per block. Historically, the peaks of cycles appeared late after Halving, when the market “diges” lower supply. FTSE RUSSELL and FIDELITY indicate the structural importance of this mechanism for balance of demand – in 2025.
In 2025, two important, institutional demand vectors came. First of all, the US regulator liberalized the path of approval of subsequent crypto-eTFs, which expands the distribution rail for capital from the traditional market. Secondly, From January 1, 2025, a new FASB standard is in force in the USA (ASU 2023-08)allowing you to capture qualifying cryptoactic according to fair value in the profit and loss account. For some companies, this is removed by accounting blocks discouraging from keeping BTC in the balance sheet, because it ceases to be accounted for as an intangible assets only with permanent copies. These two factors reduce institutional friction and facilitate the further influx of capital.
We also have an improvement in sentiment. Market data and comments from banks from recent days describe the return of the narrative “Debasement Trade”, i.e. Investors' escapes to assets resistant to inflation and fiscal risks. JPMorgan estimates that if the relative, corrected BTC valuation relative to gold will be even, then the path towards subsequent records remains open.
Note: information posted in the text is only information and does not constitute a recommendation for the purchase or sale of financial products.
