Swedes will cast their votes on Sunday in a closely contested election, where the Social Democratic Party, currently leading in polls, seeks to remove Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing government after just one term.
Despite Sweden’s economic growth exceeding the EU average, inflation falling below 1%, and a decrease in crime in recent years, a sense of pessimism prevails along with a tense political debate. What are the underlying reasons?
Recent polls have indicated a significant lead for the left-leaning camp, although the race has tightened in the weeks leading up to the parliamentary elections on September 13.
Jan Teorell, a political scientist at Stockholm University, noted, “There’s still a bit of suspense. However, all polls have long shown a substantial lead, and it’s generally difficult to close such a large gap.”
The fragmented political landscape in Sweden means that securing a parliamentary majority and forming a viable government presents distinct challenges.
The latest Novus/TV4 poll placed the four opposition parties – led by Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, the Centre Party, the Green Party, and the Left Party – at a combined 50.3% of the vote.
In contrast, the three governing parties – the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, together with the far-right Sweden Democrats supporting them in Parliament – garnered 47.7%.
Right’s Goals vs. Left’s Promises
The 2.6 percentage point gap is considerably smaller than the opposition’s advantage reported by Novus and SVT/Verian two weeks prior, which was 6.9 and 10 points, respectively, indicating an increasingly tight electoral race.
The Liberal Party remains a potential electoral vulnerability for the government, with its support hovering just above the 4% threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
Teorell explained that the right-wing parties gained power largely due to a platform promising to reduce crime and energy prices. Since crime rates and gasoline prices have decreased, these issues are no longer top priorities for voters.
The left has committed to increasing taxes on banks and high-income earners to invest in healthcare and schools while assisting struggling households facing rising costs amid growing economic inequality.
Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson stated that the elections are about “what kind of country Sweden should be.” Voters will choose between “a Sweden that resembles Sweden, where people have jobs and we can improve welfare” and “a completely different country with a government dominated by the Sweden Democrats, a far-right party founded by neo-Nazis.”
The Rising Dominance of the Far Right
The governing coalition enters the elections with slightly more cohesion, under a four-party agreement negotiated post-2022 elections known as the “Tidö Agreement.” The Sweden Democrats provide parliamentary support to Kristersson’s minority government from outside the cabinet.
This time, the far-right party, now the second largest with approximately 20% of the vote, hopes to enter the government for the first time.
The party has promised Swedes the lowest gasoline prices and the lowest migration levels in Europe, as well as dental care system reform.
Prime Minister Kristersson has pledged cabinet positions to the far-right, including the migration portfolio, if he is re-elected.
Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson expressed that his party should hold more key portfolios, but he does not currently aspire to Kristersson’s position.
Opposition Dilemmas
Conversely, the opposition lacks a unified government plan. The Centre Party supports Andersson for Prime Minister, potentially paving the way for cooperation between Sweden’s traditional blocks.
However, the party excludes forming a government that includes the Left Party and opposes granting decisive influence to either the Left Party or the Sweden Democrats in key policy areas.
The Left Party has stated it will vote against any government that does not include it.
Economic Growth Outpaces EU Despite Public Pessimism
Two weeks ago, the government raised its GDP growth forecast, claiming that its policies designed to stimulate households and businesses would enable the Swedish economy to outpace its European rivals over the next four years.
The government projects a GDP growth of 2.5%, up from the previously estimated 2.3% in June, with a similar growth forecast for 2027.
In contrast, the EU is expected to see growth of around 1.1% this year.
Like many other countries, Sweden is facing a cost of living crisis in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The government has reduced fuel taxes and VAT on food products and increased tax credits for employees, promising further measures to enhance households’ purchasing power if it wins the elections.
However, despite inflation slowing to below 1%, stronger economic growth, and improvements in the labor market, households remain pessimistic, particularly those with lower incomes, according to Reuters.
A Polarizing Debate
The 2026 electoral campaign has primarily focused on domestic issues, according to an analysis by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.
According to the latest SVT/Verian poll, health care is the top concern, cited by 64% of voters as one of the most important issues. Schools and elderly care also rank high, underscoring the central role of the social welfare system.
Public order, a priority in the 2022 elections that brought the right to power, remains relevant but has diminished in importance since then, while energy policy, which dominated much of the previous campaign, has dropped to ninth place.
Nonetheless, crime and immigration remain central themes for the governing right-wing parties.
Since taking office in 2022, the government has promoted reforms aimed at reducing immigration, enhancing repatriation, and improving integration for those already residing in Sweden.
Social Democrats also support a continuation of restrictive immigration policies to counter the right’s electoral advantage on these issues, while emphasizing health care, schools, job creation, and household finances backed by tax increases.
In a broader context, the polarized and often pessimistic debate in Sweden contrasts with the more favorable image of the country abroad, where international media have recently highlighted the country’s economic adaptability, low public debt, and favorable conditions for investment and innovation.
Foreign Policy: Points of Disagreement but a Common Position on Major Issues
On foreign policy, the primary disagreement centers around Sweden’s response to the Gaza war and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict.
A left-wing government might adopt a more openly critical stance towards Israel and advocate for stronger support for Palestine. Sweden was the first EU country to recognize Palestine under the Social Democratic government in 2014, and a large majority of left-leaning voters today hold a negative view of Israel.
Defense and security policy is less likely to determine election outcomes, as parties largely agree on Sweden’s strategic direction. Remaining disagreements pertain more to implementation and Sweden’s position within NATO than whether the country should remain in the alliance or continue supporting Ukraine.
NATO accession, increased defense spending, and support for Ukraine enjoy broad political and public backing. In May, 67.9% of Swedes had a positive opinion of joining NATO, compared to 21% viewing it negatively, figures that have largely remained unchanged from the previous year.
Ukraine should also expect continuity. Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion in 2022, Sweden has provided approximately $16.3 billion in military and civilian assistance, including $13.4 billion in military support.
Security Concerns
Just over a week before the elections, the Expo organization, which monitors extremism, revealed that a public official from the Sweden Democrats, a parliamentary member, has been disseminating pro-Russian propaganda for years.
Prime Minister Kristersson, impacted by scandals during his term, reacted vehemently.
“We are in the midst of a European war,” he told the Aftonbladet newspaper. “It cannot be that people spreading pro-Russian narratives work in Parliament,” the head of the executive added.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Sweden has joined NATO and is undergoing a massive rearmament while enhancing its civil preparedness.
Sweden has accused Moscow of cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage operations, as well as incidents involving drones and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea.
Widespread Agreement on Immigration Restrictions
Immigration is one of the issues where the elections could have the clearest political consequences.
The government, heavily influenced by the Sweden Democrats, describes its immigration agenda as a “paradigm shift” following a period when Sweden received many migrants.
Since taking office in 2022, it has introduced reforms to align Swedish asylum laws with EU minimum requirements, tighten family reunification and labor immigration norms, and strengthen enforcement of return decisions.
Some measures have proven controversial.
In June, Parliament narrowly approved new reporting obligations for various state agencies regarding individuals deemed unauthorized to remain in Sweden.
The government has also faced criticism for so-called “teen expulsions” – young individuals expelled after turning eighteen, as they no longer met the criteria for residency based on family ties or independent permits.
Social Democrats have also adopted a significantly more restrictive stance since the 2015 migration crisis.
Their current program features a restrictive policy aligned with EU minimum requirements, higher expectations regarding language and employment, and more efficient returns for rejected asylum seekers.
Therefore, no Social Democrat-led government intends to revert Sweden to its pre-2015 migration policy.
There are some differences. The Centre Party favors a more liberal approach to asylum and labor migration, while the Left Party and Greens advocate for making permanent residency permits the default option, alongside stronger family reunification rights.
A new government could, therefore, reverse some reforms regarding permanent residency, family reunification, and labor migration. Nonetheless, analysts believe that Sweden’s general trend towards a more restrictive immigration policy is likely to continue.
