According to sources, Russian officers visited the Kaliningrad region last month to oversee planning and procedures for mobilizing local residents. This included logistics regarding accommodation, food, and weaponry. Similar exercises are reportedly taking place in other parts of Russia as well.
Decisions regarding a new mobilization wave are likely to be postponed until parliamentary elections at the end of September. However, Western officials believe that difficulties with recruiting contract soldiers and significant losses in the Russian army may eventually force President Vladimir Putin to take such action.
The previous mobilization was announced by Putin in September 2022, prompting hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the country out of fear of conscription. Recently, rumors of a new mobilization have reignited concerns in Russia, leading many to seek ways to leave the country. In Georgia and Armenia, real estate prices have reportedly risen in recent weeks as a result.
Moreover, experts suggest that Russia may avoid announcing a large-scale mobilization all at once. The established database of conscripts allows for a gradual increase in the number of summons and enlisting people in small groups.
A mass mobilization would also place additional strain on the Russian economy, as new soldiers would require housing, food, weapons, and pay, in addition to being removed from the civilian labor market.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, estimates that a new mobilization is unlikely to be a decisive factor for Russian military objectives this year, but could be significant by 2027.
Context
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested during an interview with Sky News on July 27 that Putin is preparing for mobilization and intends to carry it out in the fall, aiming to recruit between 300,000 and 500,000 new soldiers.
- The publication GORDON questioned whether this would be enough to prompt protests among the Russian public.
