China, with a population of approximately 1.41 billion as of 2021, is facing a significant demographic decline. United Nations projections suggest that by the year 2100, the country’s population could drop to 633 million, effectively halving its current numbers.
China, now the world’s second most populous nation after being surpassed by India in 2023, witnessed its population peak at 1.4126 billion in 2021, marking a mere increase of 480,000 from the previous year. However, starting in 2022, this period of stability transitioned into a continuous decline, as reported by ScienceBlog.com, citing an analysis published in The Conversation based on official UN data from 2024.
The UN’s published statistics include demographic projections extending to 2100, reflecting plausible future scenarios. The average projection indicates a substantial population reduction, returning to levels seen in the late 1950s.
This trend signifies a loss of approximately half of China’s current population by the century’s end. However, these UN projections are not absolute predictions. According to experts from the Population Reference Bureau, “These assumptions, while rooted in research and expert opinions, are far from certain.” The final outcome will depend heavily on confirmed hypotheses regarding birth rates, death rates, and migration over the next 75 years.
Causes of Demographic Decline
The primary factor driving the UN’s projections is the declining fertility rate. For a population to remain stable across generations, a replacement rate of about 2.1 children per woman is needed. In China, this figure has steadily fallen from 2.6 in the late 1980s to 1.3 in 2020 and further to 1.15 in 2021. By 2024, the rate had plummeted to approximately 1.01, according to The Conversation.
The shrinking workforce has been a precursor to this overall decline. China’s working-age population peaked in 2014, seven years before the total population reached its maximum. As the number of individuals entering reproductive age decreases, a general demographic peak becomes inevitable. The decline noted in 2021 marked the first decrease in the Chinese population since the Great Famine of 1959-1961.
India’s Diverging Trajectory
In contrast, India, which surpassed China in population in 2023, is experiencing a different demographic trend. Currently, India’s population is estimated at around 1.47 billion, according to Worldometers.
Clare Menozzi, a senior demographic expert at the UN Population Division, described this ranking more as a forecast than a certainty, stating, “India is currently the most populous country in the world and is expected to remain so throughout the century.” UN projections indicate a continuous population increase in India until the early 2060s, when it could reach a peak of approximately 1.7 billion. The report notes that India’s population is likely to decline by 12% following this peak.
According to official UN data, the contrasting demographic paths of China and India are influenced by their age structures. In 2025, the median age in India is expected to be 29.8 years, compared to 41.1 years in China. A younger population in India means that more individuals are entering their reproductive years, facilitating ongoing growth despite a gradual decrease in fertility rates.
The demographic separation between the two nations has already begun, as noted by ScienceBlog.com. The most populous countries are diverging significantly, despite having nearly identical populations just a decade ago. While one faces an unprecedented collapse, the other is still decades away from its peak economic growth. Their trajectories will remain markedly different until a child born today reaches old age.
