In May, Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to pitch the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project to Beijing but failed to achieve the desired interest. Chinese officials made it clear that a contract would only be considered if Russia agreed to supply gas at a significantly lower price. Reports indicate that Beijing is essentially demanding that the Kremlin subsidize this project and has urged Russia not to revisit the topic until conditions improve.
The Wall Street Journal notes that the ongoing full-scale war has constrained Russia, providing Xi Jinping with leverage to finalize a structural shift in relations. Once characterized as a partnership of equals, the current dynamic sees China dominating almost every sphere.
However, the alliance between Beijing and Moscow has its vulnerabilities. Chinese goods have flooded the Russian market, creating additional challenges for Russian manufacturers and introducing new political risks for the Kremlin. Moreover, Moscow has increasingly noted instances of Chinese espionage attempts among mid-level officials, though these reports are often suppressed to maintain relations.
Analysts point out that Russia’s dependence on China is becoming increasingly evident. In 2013, only 10% of Russia’s foreign trade was with China; today, that figure has surged to nearly 40%. One-third of Russian export revenues come from China, while Russia accounts for less than 4% of China’s trade turnover.
The WSJ also reports that Beijing is building connections within Russia that extend well beyond Putin. China is establishing ties with officials and elite representatives who will shape Russian policy after the current leader steps down, aiming to maintain its influence in the country.
Furthermore, analysts believe that China has a genuine opportunity to transform Russia into a “giant Laos” or a “giant Pakistan,” states that rely heavily on Beijing, are closely tied to it, and view it as a model for development and modernization.
