War, sanctions, oil crisis. All this just to get back to square one. This could be a historic defeat for Trump
Donald Trump once described Barack Obama's Iran deal as one of the worst deals in American history. In his opinion, the 2015 nuclear agreement was too weak, earned Tehran billions and ultimately only delayed the development of the bomb, rather than preventing it.
Now Trump will likely find himself in exactly the same place Obama was 11 years ago, clearly failing to achieve his own goals.
After months of war, a global energy crisis and serious economic turmoil, Washington and Tehran announced their first preliminary agreement on the night between Sunday and Monday – but nothing has been signed yet. The Strait of Hormuz is to be reopened, the US naval blockade is to end, and a comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear program is to be negotiated within 60 days. At the same time, the easing of sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian funds are at stake.
Trump's problem is that these are the concessions he has been accusing Obama of over the years. The Republican president portrays the agreement as a historic success. Indeed, lasting peace between the US and Iran would be a diplomatic breakthrough. However, one thing has been achieved above all so far: the war has been stopped. However, the causes of the conflict remain largely unresolved.
The war is over – the nuclear issue is not
The most important question remains the same as before the war began: what will happen to Iran's nuclear program? Even after the agreement, there is no clear answer to this. Negotiations on this matter are just beginning. Although Tehran once again assures that it does not seek to acquire nuclear weapons, it still demands the right to enrich uranium. It was this contentious issue that characterized the Obama agreement and later contributed to its failure.
Trump therefore faces a political dilemma. The more the final agreement resembles Obama's 2015 deal, the harder it will be to explain why a war was needed at all.
Because even the critics of that agreement admit that the initial situation today is not any better. Iran still has enriched uranium. The regime still exists despite massive American and Israeli attacks. And the key issues have not been resolved, but postponed until new negotiations. Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour therefore says: CNN only about returning to the “cold war” between Washington and Tehran. The most difficult topics were postponed until later.
Israel concerned about the agreement
The situation is particularly difficult for Israel. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu justified the war in order to permanently eliminate the “existential threat” from Iran. He was referring not only to Iran's nuclear program, but also to Iran's missile arsenal and support for its allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi rebels.
However, these issues almost do not appear in the previously known points of the agreement. This is causing considerable concern in Israel. Opposition leader Yair Lapid spoke about a possible defeat in security policy. Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called reports of the agreement a “disaster.”
In addition, there is another point of contention: Lebanon. Tehran and the brokers of the agreement assume that the ceasefire will also apply to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Israel has not confirmed this yet. That is why observers fear that new attacks in Lebanon may lead to the collapse of the entire agreement.
High price for a similar contract
But Trump urgently needs success. The war increased oil prices and inflation levels and placed a strain on the American economy. Opening the Strait of Hormuz could calm energy markets and give the president a breathing space in domestic policy. However, easing economic tensions alone will not be enough to justify the political costs of war.
Ultimately, Trump will be judged on his own promise: to negotiate a better deal than Obama. So far, there are many indications that the main difference may lie not so much in the content but in the price.
Obama reached the agreement after years of negotiations. Trump, after war, blockade, thousands of deaths and massive economic losses, could arrive at a solution that is surprisingly similar to his predecessor's hated model. Thus, measured by his own goals, he would clearly fail.
