“A nightmare for Israel”. Donald Trump's U-turn looks like revenge [OPINIA]
The bright color is new. During a ceremony marking the 37th anniversary of the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, on Thursday, women in black and bearded men in camouflage uniforms wave the same flags as always: the Iranian flag in red, green and white, as well as the Palestinian one, which adds a black stripe to the mix, and the yellow flag of Lebanese Hezbollah. In addition, there is now another flag: a bright red one with one word in bold black font: Intiqam, revenge.
It is Iran's desire for revenge that makes the war in the Middle East so agonizingly prolonged. Tehran is not just about uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz.
It is also about a test in real conditions: can Iran's system of clerical rule, created by Khomeini after the 1979 revolution, be able to cope with the most powerful military machine in the world? Can it survive even though Khomeini's successor, Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of this war, and his inexperienced son Mojtaba is now in power?
The alleged ceasefire between Iran on the one hand and the US and Israel on the other is in fact medium-intensity war with constant air raids and counter-attacks. And extension negotiations are ultimately about who will impose their will on the other side. Politics as a continuation of war by other means, as Michel Foucault put it. At this level, things are not looking good for Donald Trump right now.
“The agreement is largely negotiated,” the US president wrote on Truth Social on May 23. The agreement contains many elements, but most importantly: “The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.”
There were immediate warnings from Israel and hawks within Republican ranks. An agreement on these terms would be tantamount to “unconditional surrender,” unnamed Israeli officials said in an interview with the US news agency AP. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham declared that the prepared agreement is a “nightmare for Israel” and ensures Iran's role as a regional armed power that can still threaten the Strait of Hormuz.
The agreement is almost ready
Anyone who talks to people who are informed from various sides about the state of negotiations receives an image in which the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may become one of the main losers of this fight. That's because Trump is no longer willing to accept the economic losses that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz means for his voters and wants to reach an agreement quickly.
Trump also appears to be subordinating Israel's key demands for the Iran nuclear deal to this goal. It is already known that a proposal for a memorandum of understanding is currently on the table, which is intended to end the immediate crisis and open a new phase of negotiations.
In the first stage, Iran is to allow regular traffic of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz again, while the United States will suspend attacks on Iranian targets and unblock a certain part of frozen foreign assets. Apparently, Tehran is demanding a contribution of $12 billion. (PLN 44.1 billion at the current exchange rate).
Moreover, it is about to begin A 60-day negotiation phase in which the United States and Iran want to negotiate a comprehensive nuclear agreement. However, according to research by “Welt am Sonntag”, this agreement is in fact almost ready. Of course, Trump here, as elsewhere, is difficult to predict. Because of this, and because of warnings from his party and Jerusalem, the situation could change quickly. However, in the current situation, some elements of a possible agreement seem to be contrary to Israel's basic demands.
Iranian elites familiar with Iran's latest negotiating position, which was included in the current draft, point to an 18-year moratorium on uranium enrichment on Iranian territory as the crux of the agreement — with some limitations. By design uranium enrichment is to continue to a small extentif necessary for the operation of the research reactor; probably for a facility in Tehran. Israel demanded a complete end to uranium enrichment in Iran.
Israel demands that uranium leave Iran
Also on the issue of stockpiles of highly enriched uranium that are buried or hidden in Iran, a compromise appears to be imminent. Therefore, Iran should not export to a third country 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which theoretically could be quickly enriched to 90 percent, necessary for the production of nuclear bombs, but should “destroy” it. However, the term may also include the possibility of significantly diluting uranium under international supervision, for example to a level that allows it to be used in a research reactor.
Netanyahu, however, demanded that all enriched uranium “leave Iran.” Further key issues for Israel, as well as the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, are to be postponed to an international conference of regional powers, for example the issue of Iran's missile arsenal and Tehran-backed militias in the region.
According to research by “Welt am Sonntag”, current talks include, among other things, the extent to which the final agreement will be included in the Memorandum of Understanding. Apparently it's also about Trump somehow emerging victorious. To do this, he would need to achieve more than his predecessor, Barack Obama, under the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.
The validity period of 18 years would already be longer than the 15 years provided for in the longest provisions of the old document. The restriction on uranium enrichment is also more far-reaching than it was then. But this would be different than the “zero enrichment” formula that Trump once announced and which Israel sees as a condition for preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.
In Qatar, a country that has repeatedly acted as an intermediary between the parties to the conflict, the talks are assessed more optimistically. Majed Al-Ansari, an adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Sani, disagreed with concerns that the deal would give Iran room to reignite hostility with other players in the region and beyond.
“If such an agreement were to be reached, Iran could find itself in a situation where some of its internal processes would be closely linked to the international community,” Ansari said. “This would involve the state more closely in international structures on issues such as the nuclear program, economy and energy policy.”
This means that the US president is reprimanding the Israeli prime minister because he has angered US negotiating partners in Iran. Even if it was only a momentary situation: such a role reversal has never happened before. This is what revenge looks like.
