The local and national elections represent the most difficult test yet for the British Prime Minister's authority, which is already under considerable pressure.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer / PHOTO: AFP
If Keir Starmer's current difficulties seemed serious, the election on Thursday, May 7, promises to further complicate the situation for the London leader.
According to renowned pollster John Curtice, a professor at the University of Strathclyde, the current data would have to be “dramatically wrong” for the Prime Minister to avoid a disastrous set of results on May 7. Starmer is already facing extremely low approval ratings, a scandal over his US ambassador appointment and deep discontent among his own MPs.
In the context of the local vote in England and crucial national tests in Scotland and Wales, here are the critical points that could weaken the prime minister's position, calling into question his future in Downing Street less than two years after his landslide victory.
1. Risk of loss of control in Wales
Wales has traditionally been considered an unshakable stronghold of the Labor Party, with the party dominating the local political scene for over a century. Since the establishment of the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in 1999, Labor has held power at every election.
This time, however, voters seem drawn to the alternatives: the right-wing Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, and the left-wing nationalists of Plaid Cymru.
Losing the Welsh “fortress” would be a major image blow. The new electoral system, based on full proportional representation, will make it almost impossible for a single party to obtain a majority. If the predictions come true, Welsh Labor could be forced to choose between supporting pro-independence rivals Plaid Cymru or allowing the Reform party to rise to power.
2. The Scottish deadlock
The Scottish Parliament elections should have been Labour's moment of glory. After Starmer's party won 37 of Scotland's 57 seats in the Westminster Parliament in the 2024 general election, it was hoped that the hegemony of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Edinburgh would end.
The SNP has been in charge of the Scottish government since 2007, and Labor hoped the decline of the Nationalists would pave the way for them to govern. However, the reality on the ground suggests that a return to power in Scotland remains a much more difficult challenge than anticipated, and failure here would undermine Starmer's national strategy.
