Article by Tudor Belivacă – Published on Thursday, 30 April 2026, 10:52 / Updated on Thursday, 30 April 2026 10:52
The Champions League semi-final round has ended. PSG edged past Bayern Munich 5-4 in a thrilling match, while Atletico drew 1-1 with Arsenal at the Metropolitano.
The statisticians at Football Meets Data used their data and computer to determine the most likely final, based on the results. A paradox would be that despite the fact that Bayern lost to PSG at the Parc des Princes, the team from Germany has a better chance of reaching the final of the Champions League than Atletico Madrid, the team that drew with Arsenal.
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Bayern v PSG was scheduled for 6 May from 22:00, while Arsenal v Atletico was scheduled for the same time but on 5 May.
Statisticians have done the calculations for the Champions League final: Arsenal – PSG, the most likely scenario
Arsenal have an 81.6% chance of reaching the Champions League final, according to the latest calculations by Football Meets Data, and have the best chance of reaching the last leg in Budapest. PSG have a 57% chance of reaching the final, while Bayern Munich, despite losing, have a 43% chance of reaching the final, given that the second leg will be played in Germany.
Atletico Madrid, despite earning a home draw with Arsenal, have just an 18.4% chance of qualifying after next week's clash at the Emirates.
The statisticians also came up with probabilities related to how the final in Budapest could look like: Arsenal – PSG is the most likely option, with a 47.1% chance of happening.
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Arsenal – PSG: 47.1%
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Arsenal – Bayern Munich: 34.5%
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Atletico Madrid – PSG: 10.3%
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Atletico Madrid – Bayern Munich: 8.1%
The Champions League final was scheduled for May 30 at the Puskas Arena in Budapest, from 19:00.
