Declaring war on Iran was intended to change the situation in the Middle East by weakening the nefarious regime and thwarting its nuclear ambitions. According to the most ardent supporters of this idea, the war was also supposed to change the world, intimidating the growing China. Show that Washington's control over the flow of oil exposes Beijing to a threat. It was also intended to enhance deterrence by contrasting U.S. military superiority with China's reluctance or inability to save its allies.
After a month of fighting, this logic still seems flawed and arrogant — or at least it does from Beijing's perspective. Journalists from The Economist magazine talked to diplomats, advisers, scientists, experts and current and former officials in China. Almost everyone shares one belief – that The war in Iran is a serious US mistake. And that Beijing already has a plan on how to use it.
The Economist's interlocutors claim that China's leaders well understand the maxim attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, which he allegedly uttered when his enemies were leaving their positions near Austerlitz: “never interrupt an enemy when he makes a mistake.”
US problems are a wind in China's sails
Many Chinese say the war will accelerate the decline of the US. They see the American aggression against Iran as confirmation of the correctness of Xi Jinping's approach, which puts security above economic growth. They also expect that peace, when it comes, will create opportunities for China that it can use to its advantage.
There is a view in Beijing that the US is attacking Iran because it feels its power is weakening. That, as with Britain in the 19th century, their impressive display of military power contrasts with their lack of purpose and restraint. President Donald Trump has disregarded expert advice and is making wild threats. His lack of strategy doomed the US to failure.
Chinese experts hope the war will reinforce rumors of US collapse. For the Chinese, Trump's considerations about conducting a ground operation in Iran are a sign of how easily one ill-considered step can lead to another. If chaos reigns in Iran or the regime stays in power, Americans could spend years putting out fires in the Middle East. If Iran pursues nuclear weapons, Washington may declare war on it again.
All this would divert US attention from East Asiawhere – if China achieves its goal – the 21st century will take shape. The war in Iran also worries countries dependent on the US. Not only has their ally become less reliable, but they are also paying for his impetuosity with high prices of energy and raw materials. Will Asian countries watch this and become more careful not to offend China?
US deterrent
Moreover, Chinese officials believe that the war in Iran validates Xi Jinping's emphasis on pursuing self-sufficiency in technology and raw materials — even if these efforts come at the expense of economic growth (which remains stubbornly and wastefully below its potential).
Xi Jinping tried to protect China from closing bottlenecks. It has created a strategic oil reserve of 1.3 billion barrels, enough to last for several months. He diversified energy generation, introducing nuclear, solar and wind power, while maintaining the use of domestically mined coal. China is behaving in its characteristically pragmatic manner by facilitating Iran's oil trade.
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Xi Jinping has also invested in his own bottlenecks, making them a deterrent to the US. Last year, after Trump increased tariffs, Beijing threatened to restrict supplies of rare earth metals, essential for electronics and green technologies. Although this advantage will disappear as the US finds other sources of these raw materials, Xi is already looking for new pressure points. These may be key pharmaceutical molecules or some chips. He wants China to dominate new technologies such as quantum computing and robotics.
Finally, the war in Iran creates new opportunities. After its completion, the Persian Gulf countries and Iran will most likely announce tenders for lucrative reconstruction contracts. Many countries, fearful of future embargoes in the Strait of Hormuz, will want to buy Chinese green technologies, including equipment from solar, wind and battery producers – all of which have production surpluses. While the United States changes its mind like a kaleidoscope, China's cynical selfishness is at least reliable.
China also believes it can take advantage of the United States.
Cautious optimism
A weakened Trump in Iran may be an easier partner for negotiations. When he meets with him in Beijing in May, Xi Jinping will hope to lay the groundwork for an agreement that will limit the US's weaponization of tariffs and export controls and perhaps create a framework for Chinese investment in the US. In China's ideal scenario, Trump will state that the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence and supports peaceful reunification — which would be a departure from the deliberate ambiguity of Henry Kissinger's original formula [jej celem było ułożenie relacji z Chinami przy jednoczesnym uniknięciu porzucenia Tajwanu].
However, Chinese optimism is tempered by anxiety. Experts from this country are surprised by the way the American armed forces use artificial intelligence to coordinate operations. This is yet another reason to reject the notion that Xi Jinping is impatiently waiting to invade Taiwan. US aggression against Iran has shown that war is unpredictable. Other concerns are economic. If the war in Iran drags on, the damage to China and its exports will increase, even if other countries suffer more.
Despite all its sober analysis, China has one strategic weakness. Chinese thinkers are too reluctant to consider a scenario in which the US acts as a rogue power, destroying the world order it has created. Although China likes to complain about Western values, it has so far prospered thanks to the principles that the Americans have upheld.
An unstable world would not suit China. Global chaos would undermine their export-led growth. This is a worry for a party whose legitimacy is based on prosperity, iron discipline and a belief in Chinese exceptionalism.
Current events may indeed be accompanied by the collapse of the US. But not necessarily. In the face of technological and political change, the country has repeatedly demonstrated a remarkable capacity for rebirth. China, on the other hand, is cautious, aging and shackled by party ideology. Until now, whenever the United States failed to provide global security, China was reluctant to step in.
China relies heavily on the assumption that the United States will not be able to thrive in the anarchy it creates. However, there is also a scenario in which the United States welcomes the coup with open arms and China withdraws into itself. That future may belong to the United States.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
