Russia goes on the defensive in Ukraine for the first time in two and a half years. The causes of Moscow's failure in March
The Russian army did not register any territorial gains in Ukraine in March, a first since September 2023, even retreating in some places in front of Kiev's forces, according to the analysis carried out by AFP based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports News.ro.
The Russian army has slowed its advance since the end of 2025 under the effect of counteroffensives in the southeast of the country, capturing 123 km² in February, which is already the smallest advance since April 2024.
Net territorial gain of Kiev
On the entire front, in March, Ukrainian forces recaptured even 9 km². This figure excludes infiltration operations carried out by Russian forces beyond the front line, as well as advances claimed by the Russian side, but which were neither confirmed nor denied by ISW, which collaborates with the Critical Threats Project (a branch of the American Enterprise Institute or AEI), another American think tank specializing in the study of conflicts.
ISW attributes this slowdown of the Russian military in recent months to Ukrainian counteroffensives, but also to “the ban imposed on Russia to use Starlink terminals in Ukraine” and “the Kremlin's efforts to restrict access to Telegram.” This messaging application, which is very popular in Russia, including on the front, has been almost unusable in recent months due to blockades imposed by the authorities, while Moscow actively encourages its citizens to opt for the Max platform, which the authorities promote as “national messaging”.
As in February, Russia ceded ground on the southern part of the front line, between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. In this area, Russia first penetrated in June 2025 and occupied more than 400 km² at the end of January. This control area was reduced to 200 km² in February, then to 144 km² in March.
The front sector where the Russians advanced
However, the situation is unfavorable for Kiev further north, in the Donetsk region, in the direction of the two large regional cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. East of the latter, Kremlin troops advanced about 50 km² in a month.
During the entire fourth year of the conflict, in 2025, the Russian military advanced more than in the previous 24 months.
However, the dynamic is reversed: in the first three months of 2026, Russian territorial gains are twice as small as in 2025, during the same period.
Four years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow occupies just over 19% of the territory, most of it having been conquered in the first weeks of the conflict. About 7%, including Crimea and areas of the industrial basin of Donbass, was already under the control of Russia or pro-Russian separatists before the February 2022 invasion.
