Brent crude oil increased by 63% in March. in April it even dropped by 8%. However, this did not completely stop diesel prices. In contract quotations in London diesel prices increased by 81%. in March and becomes more expensive by 8.6%. in April.
Under the same circumstances, the price of RBOB gasoline increased in March by “only” 40 percent, and in April by 2.6 percent. Why is the market much more lenient towards petrol than diesel and why do owners of diesel vehicles now have to pay more? Let us remember that diesel oil is cheaper to refine than gasoline.
What's wrong with diesel?
Diesel is the main fuel for road freight transport. However, gasoline dominates in passenger cars.
Theoretically, diesel oil should become more expensive mainly in winter, because then there is an increased demand for heating oil, i.e. the same product, but used for heating. Diesel prices also go up when the transport of goods on the road increases dramatically after the holidays. However, these are all demand responses. This time, however, the reason for the price increase is not demand, but supply.
Analysts say diesel prices are responding more strongly primarily to global risks associated with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor through which about one-fifth of the world's supplies of petroleum products pass. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said: “Diesel is responding more aggressively than gasoline as tensions mount in a key global shipping corridor,” Yahoo Finance quotes in the report.
The Strait of Hormuz is crucial
About 15 million barrels of oil per day flowed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict, which was 34 percent. global oil trade, as well as over 5 million barrels of petroleum products. Tankers also carried gasoline along this route, but diesel oil flowed in larger quantities.
According to an analysis by BloombergNEF and Vortex, how many flows passed through this strait in 2025? 6 percent world supplies of gasoline, in the case of diesel it was already 10%, and heating oil – 14%. The blockade of the strait thus hit harder the supply of diesel fuel on the global market.
Percentage of the world's supply of petroleum products transported through the Strait of Hormuz
|
BNEF/Bloomberg
Crude oil from the Middle East is usually denser and contains more impurities, which makes it relatively cheaper. However, for this reason it is more suitable for the production of diesel oilnot gasoline. Lighter crude oil, e.g. from the USA, is used to produce gasoline.
Stocks low due to cold winter
Even before the US and Israel attacked Iran, global supplies of diesel oil were already too low. The cold winter created additional demand for heating oil, which reduced diesel stocks.
— Diesel supplies were already tight on the eve of the conflict. When global energy markets face sudden disruptions, fuels with limited supply often see the biggest gains, oil analyst Tom Klozy pointed out for Ohana Magazine on Thursday.
Diesel oil is the basic fuel not only in the transport of goods, but also also in agriculture. An increase in its prices may affect the costs of agricultural production and the supply of agricultural goods in general, because some farmers may decide that it is too much and they are unable to produce at such costs. They still complain about low income. Diesel prices remaining at a high level for longer is a dangerous forecast for inflation in Poland.
