In March, the majority of MPC members supported reducing the cost of money by 25 basis points. Economists emphasize that such a decision was possible already in February, but the Council decided to wait for new macroeconomic data.
The rest of the article is below the video:
Read also: The Polish economy is growing, but we face challenges. Forecasts indicate a slowdown in 2027.
NBP forecasts. Growth and inflation
The January information about the decline in CPI inflation to 2.2 percent played a key role here. year to year and a clear weakening of the wage growth dynamics in the enterprise sector. Moreover, the March projection of inflation and GDP prepared by the National Bank of Poland and the results of the NECMOD model indicated a good condition of the Polish economy.
NBP forecasts for 2026 show GDP growth of 3.9 percent, which means a clear acceleration compared to the previous forecast of 2.9 percent. At the same time, the expected inflation for the same year was lowered from 3.4%. up to 2.3 percent — close to the central bank's inflation target. PZU analysts emphasize that such data prove that economic growth is accelerating without price pressure. According to NBP forecasts, average annual inflation in the years until 2028 should remain in the range of 2.3-2.4%.
The crisis in the Middle East and the situation in Poland
However, PZU experts pay attention to external factors that may influence further decisions of the Monetary Policy Council. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a key threat. Even though the current prices of energy raw materials do not pose a risk to inflation, the escalation of tensions in this region may cause a supply shock. Such a scenario could both increase inflation and slow down economic growth.
Analysts emphasize that further easing of monetary policy will require stable external conditions. If the geopolitical situation remains under control, the July update of the NBP projection of inflation and GDP may become an opportunity for another interest rate cut.
