The real estate market slows down dramatically: in January not even half of the properties traded in December were sold

The official data published by ANCPI show a dramatic decrease in the number of real estate transactions in Romania in January, both compared to the previous month and compared to January of last year.

The housing market fell dramatically in January 2026. Photo Shutterstock

According to the data published by the National Real Estate Registry and Publicity Agency (ANCPI), in January 2026, 24,598 properties were sold throughout the country, 31,605 fewer than in December. The number of houses, land and apartments that were the subject of transactions in January is 6,236 less compared to the same period of 2025. Most real estate sales were recorded in Bucharest – 4,159, Ilfov – 1,799 and Brașov – 1,273. The counties with the fewest properties sold are Teleorman – 41, Călărași – 121 and Sălaj – 169. As for county residences, the most real estate transactions took place in Brașov – 696, Constanța – 365 and Suceava – 360, and the fewest in Alexandria – 3, Miercurea-Ciuc – 10 and Giurgiu – 19.

Regarding the number of mortgages, at the national level, it was 14,830, 5,855 less than in January 2025. The most operations of this kind were registered in Bucharest – 2,564, Ilfov – 1,336 and Timiș – 823. At the opposite pole are the counties of Harghita – 27, Teleorman – 39 and Gorj – 46, it shows ANCPI The counties where the most agricultural land was sold, in January 2026, are Buzău – 436, Dolj – 312 and Tulcea – 275.

Credit market outlook in the first half of 2026

Real estate experts appreciated that the year 2026 starts cautiously, both in terms of forecasted economic growth (~1%), and in terms of inflation dynamics, which remains high in the first semester, with better prospects in the second semester.

According to the current projection provided by the BNR, inflation will remain slightly above 9% in the first two quarters of the year, and will decrease to 4% in Q3, a trend dominated by a high range of uncertainty, highlighted on the projection graph.

“This year's evolution will be shaped around the Government's ability to continue reducing the deficit without additional tax increases, but also around other factors such as the success of the absorption of PNRR funds or political-fiscal stability. The reduction of inflation in the second half of the year depends on the successful crossing of this period, offering the prospect of a possible relaxation of monetary policy, favorable to the credit market and implicitly to the residential market. In January, the demand for the new housing segment started with a slight decrease compared to the previous year, against the background of a prolonged vacation, but also of an uncertain economic context, but it is possible to recover in the next period. Regarding the evolution of prices, they increased last year by an average of 14% at the national level and we do not see, in the supply-demand relationship, any signs of a reversal of this dynamic. However, during the year, slowdowns in the growth rate or even small isolated corrections are possible, determined by the local context“, explained Dan Niculae, CEO of Imobiliare.ro Finance.

According to him, the evolution of the Reference Index for Consumer Credits (IRCC) in the first semester is to the advantage of Romanians, leading to a slight decrease in rates for loans with variable interest, but also allowing access to slightly higher loans with similar incomes, thus reducing the gap generated by the recent price increase. Until the end of March, the IRCC will maintain its current level of 5.68%, only to decrease again to 5.58% from April 1, reflecting the evolution of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Trîmbitașu: People don't feel like buying new apartments

Moreover, the real estate specialist Şerban Trîmbitașu recently stated that people no longer want to buy new apartments, and this can be easily understood given the VAT increase to 21%.

“The residential side with new apartments is still creaking and creaking since the VAT increased. And I understand people, that you don't feel like giving 220,000 euros for a new apartment, of which more than 40,000 euros go to the state.

On the commercial side it is even worse. I see empty seats, which under other conditions would never have been empty, because they have good seats with good ford. These spaces are usually leased, and the fact that they are giving them up may either mean that the rent is too high and they have moved to smaller premises with lower rent, or that they have moved the business online“, he explained.

The mortgage market performed very well in 2025

Regarding the value of mortgage loans taken out by Romanians last year, the latest available data show that in the first 11 months, mortgage loans worth almost 10 billion euros were accessed, up 22% compared to the similar period in 2024, according to an extensive market analysis.

According to her, over 92,100 mortgages were registered in 2025 in Romania, increasing by 6.4% compared to the volume recorded in 2024, in Bucharest, Ilfov, Timiș and Cluj being granted the most mortgage loans at the national level, shows an analysis carried out by the online broker Ipotecare.ro based on official data.

Thus, according to ipotecare.ro, more than 27,000 mortgage loans were granted in Bucharest in 2025, almost 2% less compared to the result recorded in the previous year, while in Ilfov 7,570 mortgage loans were granted in 2025, the county registering the highest annual increase at national level, of 27.6%, according to the data of the National Cadastre Agency and Real Estate Advertising. Cumulatively, Bucharest and Ilfov have a share of almost 38% of the total mortgages registered in 2025 in Romania.

The next positions in the ranking of the largest regional mortgage markets in the country are Timiș, where almost 7,300 mortgages were registered, an increase of 7.4% compared to the result in 2024, Cluj, where just over 6,000 mortgages were registered, an annual increase of 15%, and Constanța, with just over 5,000 mortgages registered, a result with 5.20% weaker compared to the one in 2024.

Constanța was also one of the three regional markets where annual decreases in the number of registered mortgages were registered, along with Bucharest and Iași, where 4,122 mortgages were registered, down 26.4% compared to the volume recorded in 2024. The ranking of the largest regional mortgage markets in the country is completed by Brașov, Iași, Sibiu, Bihor and Prahova, which climbed to tenth step, replacing Argeș County. Cumulatively, the first 10 mortgage markets in Romania add up to over 74% of the number of mortgages registered last year at the national level.

“The mortgage market recorded very good results in 2025: the share of residential transactions carried out through credit increased, the refinancing market also recorded a higher volume than in 2024 and cumulatively we are heading towards a new mortgage financing record. The growth is supported especially by first-time buyers, but also by customers who opted for refinancing under more favorable conditions. 2026 has started with falling interest rates, both IRCC and fixed ones being lower, and the demand for residential premises with a high level of comfort is just as high. We estimate that 2026 could bring similar results, taking into account the current market conditions and the tendency to decrease the budget deficit and the inflation rate, which could also generate a monetary policy interest rate cut by the National Bank“, commented Cătălin Marin, representative of Ipotecare.ro.