Decision of the Monetary Policy Council in February 2026. The Monetary Policy Council did not change interest rates

For the second time this year, the Monetary Policy Council took a break and left interest rates unchanged. However, the February decision was not so obvious, but ultimately resulted in maintaining the winter “pause” in the “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing.

Pursuant to the decision of the Monetary Policy Council of February 4, 2026, the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland will be as follows:

• reference rate 4.00% per annum;
• lombard rate 4.50% per annum;
• deposit rate 3.50% per annum;
• rediscount rate of bills of exchange 4.05% per annum;
• bill of exchange discount rate 4.10% per annum.

Therefore, we have the second decision in a row to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged. However, this time it was not as obvious as in January. In the PAP Biznes survey, the votes of economists were almost split. Half of the respondents expected no changes in interest rates, and half expected their reduction. Economists who assumed no reduction in February expected it only in March.

The main argument in favor of extending the “pause” was the December labor market data, which showed a surprising acceleration in wage growth in the corporate sector. Moreover, the previous meeting of the Council took place only three weeks ago and since then we have not learned much new data from the Polish economy.

Additionally, after the December cut, some Council members in their communication suggested a pause of several months in this “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing. This attitude resulted not only from the statistical calendar (in mid-March we will have the annual and routine review of the so-called inflation basket), but also from the need to analyze the impact of last year's interest rate cuts on the economy.

This is how the Monetary Policy Council loosened monetary policy in Poland

Interest rates at the National Bank of Poland are now the lowest since April 2022. We have had six further reductions in credit costs at the National Bank of Poland, after which the reference rate has already decreased by 175 basis points. lower than it was in spring last year. It all started in May, when the Monetary Policy Council, after almost half a year of stabilizing the money price, immediately decided to cut it by 50 points. Then the Council officially talked about “adjusting” interest rates and swore that this was not the beginning of a cycle of reductions. As it turned out later, this was not true.

In June, the Council “rested” and kept rates unchanged. Another cut – surprising for most economists – 25 bp. – took place in July, and the next one (already expected by the market) materialized in September. The cuts continued also in October, when the Council lowered rates contrary to the expectations of most analysts. We also experienced further reductions in November and – contrary to unwritten tradition – also in December.

After last year's reductions, interest rates at the National Bank of Poland went from moderately high to moderately low. The reference rate of 4.00% is probably already below the neutral level and may begin to be perceived as a manifestation of the slightly expansionary monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland. The central value (median) for the NBP reference rate for the last 26 years is 4.25%. It just means that We are slowly approaching the end of this “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing.

The market estimates that the period of monetary policy easing will end this year. Recently, the futures market has moved down expectations regarding the “target” level of interest rates in Poland. Now the expected rate in mid-2027 is only 3.25%. However, economists' forecasts are in the range of 3.00-3.75%, probably reached somewhere around mid-2026.

Who isn't happy about lower interest rates?

Lower interest rates please debtors who repay their liabilities based on a variable interest rate. This group mainly includes people in debt for the purchase of real estate who incurred their obligations before 2022. The ruling politicians will be even more pleased, as the State Treasury is the largest debtor in the country.

At the same time, they mean increasingly lower interest rates on bank deposits and bonds – both treasury and corporate ones. Therefore, the possibility of sensible and safe investment of savings is limited. However, real positive interest rates (ex post) still apply in Poland. This means that the NBP reference rate exceeds CPI inflation for the previous 12 months.

The publication of the official statement of the Monetary Policy Council containing the justification for the January decision is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Everything will be explained in more detail by the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, during Thursday's press conference. The next Council meeting is scheduled for March 3-4.

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