One bank is already considering the scenario of gold at USD 8,500. And another advises: “Less America in your wallet”

This week on the financial markets was marked by rising metal prices and a weakening dollar. In the shadow of geopolitical tensions, investors are increasingly talking about the need to diversify outside America, and analysts are making bold predictions for bullion. We check what has been happening on Wall Street in recent days.

JPMorgan strategist: Theoretically possible price of $8,000-$8,500 for gold

At the beginning of the week, the gold price broke the USD 5,000 barrier, setting a new record, and a moment later it soared towards USD 5,600, and ended the week with a correction to USD 5,000.

Although such valuations seemed difficult to imagine not long ago, they may be just a stop on the way to the level of USD 8,000-8,500.

JPMorgan strategists are considering such a scenario. In their opinion, Donald Trump's unpredictable policy will encourage investors to replace part of long-term US treasury bonds with gold in their balanced portfolios. Arguments for such a move are provided by events in Venezuela and around Greenland, as well as growing tensions in Iran. Investors are increasingly concerned that a greater risk than recession in the US (which bonds protect against) is inflation and devaluation of the US currency.

According to JPMorgan's calculations, gold currently constitutes approximately 3%. in the portfolios of global investors. The largest bank in the US sees the possibility of increasing this allocation to 4.6%.

– Such an allocation to gold at the level of 4.6%. theoretically, it would suggest a price of USD 8,000-8,500, says Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global markets strategist at JPMorgan, in an analysis for clients.

The expert warns, however, that the path to such valuations would be extremely turbulent, with deep corrections resulting from periodic profit-taking by speculators. The market gave a sample of this volatility last Thursday and Friday.

Citigroup: Silver behaves like gold on steroids

In the shadow of records on gold, silver behaved even more dynamically. The price of this metal, which increased by over 150% last year, jumped by almost 50% in January alone, to USD 115, and on Friday it corrected by about 14%. Citigroup strategists predict the price could reach $150 in the next three months, driven by demand inertia from China.

– Silver behaves like “gold squared” or “gold on steroids”. We believe that this trend will most likely continue, and silver will historically look expensive relative to the price of gold, Citigroup strategists wrote in a report reported by Bloomberg.

Federated Hermes Analysts: This looks like investment hedging

The dollar fell to a four-year low this week, but U.S. stocks and bonds are holding strong. According to strategists from Federated Hermes, this is a signal that global investors are not so much getting rid of assets from the US, but are actively hedging themselves against a decline in the value of the currency. In January alone, the dollar index lost about 2%. in response to market concerns related to Trump's plans to take over Greenland and threats of tariffs.

– What foreign investors are doing looks like hedging their investments in America against dollar devaluation, not selling them off. This is our basic assumption on which we base our negative forecasts for the dollar – write Federated Hermes analysts.

Experts expect the devaluation of the “green” to continue this year, which may undermine confidence in it as the main reserve currency.

– If the dollar's weakening trend continues for a second year, it may signal an erosion of its long-term dominance, experts add.

Pictet Wealth Management: Less USA, more rest of the world

Managers from Pictet Wealth Management suggest that investors reduce their exposure to US stocks. The decline in the purchasing power of the dollar outside the US increases the attractiveness of Europe and other regions. Their recommendation is briefly: “Less USA, more rest of the world.”

They see opportunities for profit, among others: in the coming wave of government spending on defense and infrastructure in Europe. Pictet suggests reducing the weight of US stocks in portfolios by about 10 percentage points. (currently they constitute approximately 70% of the MSCI World index) and redirecting capital to European and emerging markets. The latter should be particularly favored by the weakening dollar.

Goldman Sachs: Such an increased risk appetite is rare

Despite enormous uncertainty in geopolitics, optimism regarding the global economy means that risk appetite is the highest in 5 years, says Goldman Sachs. The bank's risk appetite index reached 1.09 last week, which is the highest reading since 2021. Since 1991, the rate has exceeded level 1 only six times.

– Such an increased level of risk appetite is rare – say the bank's strategists.

They emphasize, however, that this does not have to be a signal for pessimism.

“Stock returns may be supported by a favorable economic environment,” adds Goldman Sachs.

A positive sign is that last year's rally covered the broader market, not just technology companies, and investors are showing greater interest in small-cap companies and emerging markets.

Bank of America Strategist: Sell Signals for Risky Assets

Bank of America strategists have a completely different opinion. They warn that from a technical analysis perspective, sell signals have lit up in the markets. As much as 89 percent MSCI indexes are above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, exceeding the 88% threshold that BofA considers a signal to exit the market.

High valuations coincide with capital outflows. According to the bank's calculations, investors withdrew USD 15.4 billion from equity funds during the week. Interestingly, US equity funds continued to record inflows (USD 9.2 billion), while EUR 400 million was withdrawn from European funds.

Michael Hartnett, chief strategist at Bank of America, indicates that his favorites for 2026 remain long-term bonds, international shares and gold.

Michael Burry: I believe in GameStop and Ryan Cohen

Meanwhile, Michael Burry, the famous investor from “The Big Short”, announced the purchase of GameStop shares. The news, revealed on his Substack channel, triggered a 6 percent increase in the company's stock earlier this week. Burry treats this investment fundamentally, appreciating the management's activities in the field of business transformation.

– I own shares of GME. I bought them recently. I buy what I think will soon cost 1x net asset value. GameStop's young CEO Ryan Cohen invests and commits the company's capital and cash flow. Probably for the next 50 years, Burry argued.

GameStop was on everyone's lips five years ago, at the height of the so-called meme actions. Small investors massively bought shares of companies that were heavily shorted by institutions, which caused a sharp increase in prices. This forced hedge funds to close their positions, which further fueled an upward spiral known as a short squeeze. Since then, however, profits have declined and speculative interest in the company has clearly waned.

– I am not counting on a short squeeze to achieve long-term value growth. I believe in Ryan, I like the business model, corporate governance and strategy. I'm committed to the long term and can't wait to see where it leads, Burry writes.