ICE is rampaging in Minnesota. Trump's plan may collapse. This is a blow to Republicans
As the midterm elections approach, candidates, strategists and people close to the White House are warning that the administration's mass deportation policy — and extensive coverage of law enforcement operations, citizen arrests and clashes between protesters and officers — could cost Republicans a slim majority in the House.
The administration's heavy-handed approach across the United States is threatening alienating undecided voterswho contributed to Trump's return to the White House. But now they are increasingly distrustful of the way the president is implementing his main campaign promise. Further complicating matters is the fact that Republicans are divided on the best way to address the erosion of support. Some party members see it as a communication problem, while others say it's the administration's policies themselves that are raising concerns among voters.
“If we don't change our approach, it certainly will negative impact for the midterm elections, said Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse (D-Wash.), who recently decided not to seek re-election.
A new POLITICO study confirms these fears. Nearly half of all Americans — 49 percent — thinks Trump's mass deportation campaign is too aggressiveincluding one in five voters who supported the president in 2024. Growing dissatisfaction among the president's supporters is evidenced by the fact that more than one in three Trump voters say that while they support the goals of his mass deportation campaign, they disagree with the way it is being implemented.
The president has advocated for the removal of millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country, linking former President Joe Biden's border crisis to violent crime plaguing American cities. The White House pressured immigration officials to meet Trump's goal, which required targeting efforts that went far beyond violent criminals.
Minnesota in the spotlight
However, most Americans do not support such a radical approach. In the survey, 38 percent Americans said the federal government should prioritize deporting immigrants who have committed serious crimes, and 21 percent concluded that the administration should only deport serious criminals. The poll was conducted Jan. 16-19, after an ICE agent killed Renee Good in Minneapolis. There was another officer-involved shooting in Minneapolis on Saturday. The Minnesota Attorney General said that 37-year-old Alex Pretti died because of it.
— ICE should focus on bad men. Angry, only at them, not at the cleaners, said Republican Maria Salazar of Florida. — Gardeners are one thing, gangsters are another. Cooks are one thing, smugglers are another.
The White House remains strong so far presence of law enforcement in Minneapolisassuming that the problem is the message, not its politics. The president said this week that his administration must do more to highlight criminals arrested in the Minnesota crackdown.
Minneapolis residents pay tribute to another victim of ICE actions, January 24, 2026.Brandon Bell/Getty Images
A person close to the White House, who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, said Republicans need to focus on arresting criminals, public safety and the Trump administration's success in securing the southern borderthat are more popular among voters. Otherwise, the source fears, the Republican Party will lose support from moderate Republicans, independent voters, Latinos and young voters.
— Do I think we need to be a little more clever about this? I have no doubts about that, the interlocutor said. — The reason crime is down across the country, especially in Democratic states and cities that support the Democratic Party, is one thing — the only change is President Trump's policies.
Voter dissatisfaction
A majority of Trump voters support his mass deportation campaign, and 55 percent support his campaign of mass deportations. says these actions, including the widespread deployment of ICE agents across the U.S., are appropriate, according to a POLITICO poll conducted in partnership with Public First.
But there is a clear divide between Trump's strongest voters in 2024 and those who are more susceptible to change. Among 2024 Trump voters who do not identify with MAGA (Make America Great Again), a more moderate group of Trump supporters, 29 percent claims his campaign is too aggressive. 17 percent these voters believe that it is not aggressive enough.
43 percent Trump voters outside the MAGA movement say they support the goals of Trump's deportation program but not the way the administration is implementing it — down from 28%. Trump's MAGA voters – his strongest supporters – who say the same.
The poll results suggest that Americans are concerned about the Trump administration's approach and that even many of his voters who support tougher immigration enforcement oppose the president's sweeping deportation campaign.
“They'll be concerned about whether ICE is using excessive force. Don't they go after mothers and fathers who have no records of offenses? said Brendan Steinhauser, a strategist for the Texas Republican Party. — I don't think independent and moderate voters will like it. I don't think center-right Republicans would like this. A smaller group seems to like it. However, I do not think that on a national scale these are the people who influence the election results.
Law enforcement
Some Republicans in closely contested districts worry that immigration enforcement could become political burden in an already difficult election year. They are trying to balance general support for ICE with calling for restraint in the agency's actions.
ICE agents in Minneapolis, January 24, 2026.Star Tribune/Getty Images
— ICE exists to enforce laws passed by Congress, and in that sense its role is absolutely essential, but at the same time enforcement must be professional, focused and humane said Republican candidate Trinh Ha, an immigrant from Vietnam. — What is happening now underscores why law enforcement must always go hand in hand with restraint and responsibility.
The White House said the president's mass deportation program was the focal point of the election campaign and argued that the administration's enforcement — and its message — has and will continue to focus on the “worst of the worst,” including people convicted of assault, rape and murder. One official said the administration would not allow criminals to remain free in cities where “Democrats are not cooperating with us,” adding that “we wouldn't need such a large ICE presence if we had cooperation.”
The president expressed concern about how ICE is perceived. On Tuesday, he wrote on Truth Social that the Department of Homeland Security and ICE need to do more to draw attention to the “murderers and other criminals” they apprehend, arguing that it would help increase Americans' support for the office. He then took the podium at a White House press briefing and spent the first 10 minutes looking through photos of immigrants who had committed crimes.
“Because Minnesota is so committed to this fight, I tell my people all the time, and they're so busy with other things, they're not saying it like they should be,” Trump said. — They arrest murderers and drug dealers, a lot of bad people. I ask why you don't talk about it? Because people don't know about it.
Matters important to people
Vice President J.D. Vance traveled to Minneapolis on Thursday, where he said he wanted to “lower the temperature.” Surrounded by immigration agents, Vance expressed understanding of community members' concerns, while accusing state and local authorities of a lack of cooperation and far-left groups of fueling chaos in the city. — On the one hand, we want to enforce immigration laws, and on the other hand, we want to provide for the people of Minneapolis ability to function normally – he said.
It is not yet known whether the administration's message will be enough to ease fears within the party. While many Republicans remain confident that they are still the most trusted on immigration and border security — and that Democrats will ultimately be seen as too radical in their actions — others warn that Trump's electorate will not be the ones who decide the outcome of the 2026 election.
Immigration still ranks far below economic issues that are important to voters, according to the POLITICO poll. In a survey that asked people to choose the three most important issues facing the country, only 21 percent respondents indicated illegal immigration. Half paid attention to maintenance costs. But as the White House continues to make immigration a policy priority, a significant portion of undecided voters and moderate Trump supporters are expressing dissatisfaction with some of the administration's tactics.
“I would change the narrative about the raids,” said Buzz Jacobs, a Republican strategist and White House director of immigration policy under President George W. Bush. — In fact, most law enforcement actions are routine and never make headlines.
