Goldman Sachs economists expect 'robust' global GDP growth in 2026; In their opinion, the world economy will grow by 2.8%, which is more than the market consensus indicates – the American investment bank indicated in the report. It was added that China's GDP should grow much faster than the global average, by 4.8%.
“We expect solid global growth of 2.8%. in 2026., compared to the consensus forecast of 2.5%. The USA will probably achieve a significantly better result (2.6% versus 2.0%), due to the reduction of customs duties, tax cuts and easier financial conditions,” Goldman Sachs pointed out.
As he added in the report, the bank's economists also expect that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.8% in 2026. (compared to the consensus of 4.5%) due to strong exports outweighing weak demand in China.
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According to Goldman Sachs economists However, the European economy will fare less well, with the bank currently forecasting growth of 1.3 percent. (compared to 1.1% of the consensus). This forecast is “quite optimistic” due to fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain, the report said.
Goldman Sachs also pointed out that in 2025, global economic growth also reached 2.8%, but “its structure was completely different.” He added that China grew by an estimated 5 percent as its export-led economy “proved resilient enough to survive the trade war”, the U.S. grew by 2.1 percent and Europe grew by 1.5 percent.
Inflation on target, interest rates will fall further
According to the forecasts of the American bank, in most economies of the world at the end of 2026, inflation should oscillate around the set inflation targets. In the USA and Great Britain, Goldman Sachs expects a decline in core inflation from approx. 3%. currently to less than 2 percent. This is due to, among others, from reducing the impact of customs duties and regulated prices.
Goldman Sachs also expects that the Federal Reserve (American central bank – ed.) will reduce interest rates in 2026 by probably 50 basis points to 3-3.25%. Economists also forecast rate cuts in the UK (by 75 basis points) and in many emerging markets – especially Brazil, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
However, the bank's forecasts for the labor market are weaker. “Ongoing productivity growth raises the bar for GDP growth needed to create jobs. This discrepancy is particularly stark in the United States, where the unemployment rate remains high despite solid GDP growth,” the bank wrote
