He believes that during the Trump administration, Europe has gone through “five stages of grief”: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
The author predicts that 2026 will have to show whether European NATO countries have enough “strength and will” to actually act without US help.
Daalder described how in December 2024, even before Trump’s second inauguration, the ambassadors of the Alliance countries believed that “everything would be fine” and that a small increase in defense spending would be enough, and one of the ambassadors doubted that the United States could consider its security separately from Europe’s.
However, already at the first meeting within NATO, the new head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, said that Europe should “take responsibility for ensuring traditional security on the continent,” Politico notes.
His publication said that “denial” on the part of Europe “gave way” to anger in February 2025, when a scandal broke out in the White House at a meeting between Trump and other leaders of his administration with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
The anger, according to the author, was caused by the fact that Europe needed to “deal with Russia alone.”
Then there was bargaining when negotiations began between Europe, Ukraine and the United States, Daalder believes. He noted that NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending to 5%.
According to the author, the depression began in August, when Trump met with the illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin and, instead of the “harsh consequences” promised by Trump for the Russian Federation, the head of the White House “accepted the position” of Putin.
After this, European top politicians still tried to persuade Trump, but then in December the US national security strategy was published, in which Russia disappeared as a military threat, and Europe was actually criticized.
Politico emphasizes that an ally “wouldn’t say that or behave that way,” and “after a long year, Europe has finally come to terms with reality.”
At the end of his material, the author draws attention to the fact that it is not yet known whether Europe will be able to pursue its interests as harshly as the United States.
