Revelations about the US-Russia peace plan negotiated in secret. What conditions should Ukraine accept?

The United States has told President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine must accept a US-drafted deal to end the war with Russia, which calls for Kiev to cede territory and some of its weaponry, two people familiar with the talks told Reuters on Wednesday.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said the proposals include, among other things, reducing the size of the Ukrainian armed forces. Washington wants Kiev to accept the main points, the sources added.

Such a plan would be a major setback for Kiev, which faces new territorial advances by the Russian military in eastern Ukraine and Zelenskiy faces a major corruption scandal that led to the dismissal of the energy and justice ministers by parliament on Wednesday.

The White House declined to comment on the matter. The US State Department had no immediate comment.

A senior Ukrainian official confirmed to Reuters earlier in the day that Kiev had received “signals” about a series of US proposals to end the war that Washington had discussed with Moscow. Ukraine had no role in preparing the proposals, this source said.

Zelenski, who held talks in Turkey with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday, is due to meet with US military officials in Kiev on Thursday.

Signs of a new initiative by US President Donald Trump's administration to end the war sparked the biggest rise in Ukrainian government bond prices in months on Wednesday.

Face-to-face talks between Kiev and Moscow have not taken place since a meeting in Istanbul in July, and Russian forces continue to press forward in the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine, killing 25 people in the latest nighttime attacks.

No change in Moscow's demands

Efforts to revive peace talks appear to be gaining momentum, although Moscow has given no sign of changing its terms for ending the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long demanded that Kiev abandon plans to join the US-led NATO military alliance and withdraw its troops from the four regions that Moscow claims as part of Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson). Moscow has given no sign of backing down on any of those demands, and Ukraine says it will not accept them.

Russian forces control about 19 percent of Ukrainian territory and are advancing, while conducting frequent attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that he was preparing to “revive negotiations” and talk with Erdogan about how to bring a “just peace” to Ukraine.

“Doing everything possible to bring the end of the war closer is Ukraine's top priority,” the Kiev leader said.

Turkey, a NATO member that has remained close to both Kiev and Moscow, hosted an initial round of peace talks in 2022 in the early weeks of the war, the only such talks until this year, when Trump launched a new initiative to end the fighting.

The Kremlin has announced that Russian representatives will not attend Wednesday's talks in Ankara, but that Putin is open to talks with the US and Turkey about the outcome of the talks.

Cession of territories in exchange for security guarantees?

On Wednesday, citing a US official with direct knowledge of the matter, the US publication Axios wrote that the new US plan calls for Ukraine to cede to Moscow part of the east of the country, which Russian forces do not currently control, in exchange for a US security guarantee for Kiev and Europe against future Russian aggression.

A European diplomat, commenting on the circulated US proposals, said the plan could be another attempt by the Trump administration “to push Kiev into a corner”, but added that there could be no solution that did not take into account Ukraine's position or that of Washington's European allies.

Another European diplomat said the suggestion that Ukraine reduce its military looked more like a request from Russia than a serious proposal.

A US delegation led by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is in Kiev on an “information mission”, the US embassy in Kiev said. US Army Chief of Staff General Randy George is part of the delegation, and he and Driscoll will meet with Zelenski on Thursday, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Details of the secretly negotiated plan

President Vladimir Putin's emissary, Kirill Dmitriev, expressed optimism about the chances of success of the new deal being discussed because, unlike previous efforts, “we feel that Russia's position is really being heard,” Axios wrote.

The 28-point US plan is inspired by President Donald Trump's efforts to reach a deal in Gaza. A senior Russian official told the American publication that he was optimistic about the plan.

The 28 points of the plan revealed by Axios fall into four broad categories, multiple sources told Axios: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine.

It is unclear how the plan addresses contentious issues such as territorial control in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces are slowly advancing but do not control all the territory the Kremlin wants.

In relation to the plan also disclosed to Axios, a US official said that Trump's emissary, Steve Witkoff, is coordinating the development of the plan and has discussed it extensively with Russian emissary Kirill Dmitriev.

Dmitriev said in an interview with Axios on Monday that he spent three days in talks with Witkoff and other members of Trump's team when he was in Miami from Oct. 24-26.

Vladimir Putin's emissary expressed optimism about the deal's chances of success because, unlike previous efforts, “we feel that Russia's position is really being listened to.”

Witkoff discussed the plan with Zelenskiy's national security adviser Rustem Umerov in a meeting earlier this week in Miami, a Ukrainian official confirmed to Axios. “We know the Americans are working on something,” the Ukrainian official said.

The American side is optimistic about a peace agreement.