According to the authors of the report, with the approaching heating season, Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Estimates indicate that as a result of the destruction, the country could have lost up to 60 percent. natural gas extraction potential. There are concerns that this value will continue to rise. To cover the demand in the current season, Ukraine will be forced to import approximately 6.3 billion m³ of raw material.
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Economy and demography in the shadow of war
The BGK report shows that the effects of the war are increasingly affecting the demographic structure of the country. The State Statistical Service of Ukraine predicts that by the end of 2025 the population will decrease by 8%. compared to 2020, despite the return of some citizens from emigration. Limited access to labor force and brain drain deepen labor market problems.
The 2024 fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 0.9 births per woman — a 25% decline. less than before the war. The number of professionally active people decreased from 16 million in 2021 to 13 million in 2025. At the same time, the nominal cost of financing social benefits – such as pensions, health care and education – increased by nearly 187%. per person of working age, while in relation to GDP public expenditure increased from 15.6 to 18.9 percent.
At the same time, the number of internally displaced people decreased by more than half (51%) from March 2022 to July 2025, which may indicate a partial stabilization of the situation in some regions.
High defense spending
Since 2022, the number of personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has increased by almost 370%. Maintaining such high combat readiness requires huge financial outlays. Military spending, according to BGK, will amount to EUR 49.8 billion in 2024 and will increase to EUR 57 billion in 2025, which means maintaining the record level in the coming years.
BGK draws attention to the importance of the EU SAFE instrument, which may open up new opportunities for industrial and technological cooperation for Ukraine. This mechanism treats the Ukrainian arms industry as part of the future European security system. Thanks to SAFE, Ukraine could participate in the production of ammunition, air defense systems, cyber defense and equipment that disrupts enemy activities.
Transport: slowly rebuilding potential
After the collapse caused by the full-scale invasion, intermodal transport in Ukraine is gradually returning to pre-war levels. In the period January–August 2025, as much as 60 percent of container transport by rail was export, 28%. — import, and 12 percent — national transport.
According to government strategies, Ukraine plans to modernize and electrify 300 km of tracks by 2030, but the implementation of these plans will be impossible without financial support from abroad. Global players are already expressing interest in investing in the transport sector, hoping for a dramatic increase in the value of assets during the post-war reconstruction period.
Financial sector and development institutions
The report reminds that on October 2, 2025, the Ukrainian government began preparations for the privatization of state shares in Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank. A week later, on October 8, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on the establishment of the National Development Institution (NIR), which will be created from the transformation of the Entrepreneurship Development Fund. NIR is to deal with lending, granting guarantees and loans, as well as investment advice, with the state retaining at least 51 percent. shares in the share capital.
