The Middle East peace agreement was only days old when Donald Trump turned his attention to his next target: war in Ukraine. “Let's focus on Russia now” —he said on Sunday during a speech before the Israeli parliament, in which he celebrated the success of mediation between Israel and Hamas.
On Thursday, Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and arranged further meetings. Delegations from both countries will meet first, and the American side will be led by Secretary of State and Security Advisor Marco Rubio. Then Trump himself intends to meet with the head of the Kremlin in Budapest — “probably within the next two weeks,” he announced on Thursday. On Friday, Trump will receive Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.
Trump wants to take advantage the momentum of its success in the Middle Eastto end the war in Ukraine. Kyiv also hopes so. The upcoming talks are reinvigorating this process. However, so far there has been no change in the basic balance of power between Russia and Ukraine that would be a condition for a breakthrough.
We also cannot forget what Donald Trump has accomplished in recent months rhetorical turn 180 degrees. During Zelensky's unsuccessful visit to the Oval Office in February, he accused the Ukrainian of “having no cards in his hand” and that he would inevitably lose the war, but today Trump seems to have a different opinion.
Not only did he himself declare that Kyiv has the potential to regain its territory. He also seems to have realized that this Russia stands in the way of a ceasefire.
Tools in Trump's hands
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also made this clear this week: the former Fox News presenter has never before distinguished himself with friendly statements about Western allies, much less Ukraine. On Wednesday, however, he took part in a meeting of the contact group on Ukraine in Brussels for the first time and for the first time described Russia's behavior as “aggression”. According to Hegseth, everyone is aware that “the most effective deterrent is a Ukrainian army ready to fight.”
The Trump administration responded in this way to the fact that Putin ignored the US president after the Alaska summit and his efforts to arrange a trilateral meeting with Zelensky and thus a ceasefire. To repeat his success in Ukraine, however, Trump would have to go one step further.
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“In the Middle East, Trump had the advantage of his the partner was the stronger side” — said Mark Montgomery, a former Navy officer and longtime military policy adviser to Republican Senator John McCain, during a panel discussion at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank in Washington. Ultimately, it is pressure exerted by Trump on Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahuto agree to the American's 20-point plan, made it possible to conclude an agreement. This gave Arab partners a signal that it is now worth putting pressure on Hamas.
In the event of a war in Ukraine, Trump must adapt this strategy.
“He is the president of the most powerful country and he can raise costs for Russia to such a level that it will come to the negotiating table,” Montgomery said.
Dispute over weapons
Trump initially indicated he was willing to do so. “If this war doesn't end, I will send them Tomahawks,” he said Sunday. Cruise missiles that have a range of up to 2.5 thousand km, would enable Kiev to launch attacks deep into Russian territory. Ukraine now seems very interested in obtaining approval for the supply.
However, there is skepticism in US military circles about the delivery of Tomahawk missiles the right means of pressure. First, target programming must be done by US soldiers because it is extremely complex. This is a step you can take if in doubt.
However, there is a bigger obstacle missile launch logistics. The United States launches its Tomahawk missiles either from ships or aircraft. Kyiv has none of these possibilities. Ukraine's only option is to launch it from land, which will likely fail due to the lack of appropriate launchers. The US military only has a small number of them. The United States cannot “empty” its own stockpile, the president said Thursday.
Another obstacle is the risk that American technology will fail into the hands of the Russians. After all, Tomahawks are technologically advanced cruise missiles whose remains, if they failed to detonate, could provide Russia with information about the effectiveness of the attack. — By the time all these problems are resolved and the Tomahawks are ready for delivery, the war will be over, one military official told Die Welt.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump during their summit in Alaska, August 15, 2025.Drew Angerer / AFP
Trump faces a difficult task
Trump should therefore focus on other meansthat would increase pressure on Putin, said Andrew Bain, director of the Ukraine Freedom Fund. “The president could use his ties with the Arabs and the price of oil. Combined with significant sanctions against Russia, this would lead to Putin being cornered,” he said during a discussion at FDD.
Additionally, Trump could put pressure on countries that still import oil and gas from Russia. Washington has so far imposed only secondary tariffs on India. Trump recently raised tariffs on Chinese imports, but for different reasons.
There are still significant recipients of Russian raw materials in Europe. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that he did not intend to give up energy from Russia.
During Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington in late September, Trump also directly demanded that he give up Russian oil. Ankara rejects this demand. — It is a matter of life or death for us, Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat told Die Welt during a press conference with German journalists in early October in Istanbul.
Trump therefore faces a difficult task. Zelensky does not miss any opportunity to emphasize his readiness for peace. He will likely do so in the Oval Office on Friday as well. To persuade Putin to enter into negotiations, Trump must increase the pressure on the head of the Kremlin. And to do this, he must himself take a risk” said Montgomery.
As soon as Trump delivers another batch of weapons to Kiev or significantly tightens sanctions, the war will also become his war.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
