Ursula von der Leyen is facing two censure motions today and more fragile support / what tells us the calculation of votes in the European Parliament.

The President of the European Commission will most likely survive today's votes, but it is hit by more and more criticisms, which is why it has adopted a more conciliatory tone, I write AFP and Politico.

Ursula von der Leyen faces two censorship motions on Thursday and the radical left, a sign of tensions and dissatisfaction in the European Parliament, a few months after a first motion, initiated by the MEPs of the Gold Party, was rejected in the plenary.

The vote for both motions will take place after lunch in the Plenum in Strasbourg.

Neither these two motions are likely to be adopted. However, they reflect an increasing distrust of the president of the European Commission and test the solidity of its central coalition that was made after conservative, Social Democrats and Centriist Liberals (Renew).

The first July censure motion has already offered voices from the “pro-European” camp the chance to express their dissatisfaction with von der Leyen.

Since then, “it cannot be said that there have been real progress in this Parliament. The pro-European majority that will work badly, as stupid as always,” the lead Valérie Hayer observed in a debate that took place on Monday.

The left and the Liberals reproach the Von Der Leyen, and in general to the European People's Party from which it comes, that they cultivate an ambiguity in the relationship with the far right, with which they are allied to dilute or abolish the environmental legislation.

“You have to choose between your allies and those who are not our friends,” Iratxe Garcia told her.

In an interview for Politico, the German-Social-Democrat René Social-Democrat has even launched a threat.

Von der Leyen “must meet his promises; if we do not see this, we may see a motion submitted by S&D in the future,” he warned.

“Inaction”

At least for now, despite these criticisms, social democrats and centralists do not intend to dismiss Ursula von der Leyen.

As for the right of the PPE, it will obviously support the chairman of the commission.

The groups that have deposited the motions have different reasons to dismiss Von Der Leyen.

Manon Aubry, the co-president of the radical left Gue/NGL, accused her of “inaction” before the “genocide” in Gaza, while Jordan Bardella, the president of the patriots for Europe, denounced the policies on migration and “commercial surrender” in the commercial agreement with Donald Trump.

Interestingly, the two groups are not necessarily eager to vote together.

Only a few left -hand members intend to support the motion of the extreme right. But the patriots are more open.

I vote against Von Der Leyen every time, even for the motions promoted by vampires. Even of werewolves, ”the far -right European MEP Roberto Vannacci told Politico.

The meaning of the figures

To dismiss the Commission, a motion needs a double majority: two thirds of the votes expressed and most of all European deputies.

With a total of 720 MEPs, this means that, to be adopted, a motion needs at least 361 votes for and two thirds of all the votes expressed. It is a very high threshold, rarely reached in practice. This means that von der leyen will be safe.

But the figures matter, especially since Von Der Leyen will need the support of the entire center to promote his agenda in the coming months.

She won 401 votes when she was confirmed as the Commission chairman in July 2024.

At the July censure motion there were 360 ​​votes against, which showed a decrease in support.

175 European deputies voted for the dismissal of von der Leyen last time, and critics hope that this number is growing now. “Our goal is 200 votes this time,” said a left official.

More conciliatory

Therefore, the approach of Von Der Leyen avoided the more combative style that he showed before the summer and who seemed to remove many of the ones whose support he needs.

His new strategy emphasizes a more cooperative tone and a desire to engage rather than to face, according to the Commission officials, quoted by Politico.

“I know that some of you still hesitate about how you will vote this week,” said Ursula von der Leyen, showing more conciliatory than in July, when he qualified for the initiators of the censorship motion as “extremists”, “anti-vaccini” and admirers “of Putin”.

By appealing to the unit, she warned that any division would be “exploited” by the opponents of the European Union, mentioning Russia.

The European Parliament has never actually overturned a commission.

However, there was an exception in 1999: before a lost vote from the beginning, the then European Commission, chaired by Luxembourg Jacques Santer, resigned as a result of an accusatory report on his “serious responsibility” in fraud cases.