“The August data is a warning signal – the labor market loses its resistance, and the extremely low number of job offers suggests permanent weakening of demand for employees. This changes the prospects of the coming months: instead of the traditional (because seasonal) decrease in unemployment up to autumn – it is necessary to expect further growth” – he said, the main economist of Kig Piotr Soroczyński.
“We should formally be in the period typical for the months of spring and summer improvement on the labor market, which usually ended with September or October. Taking into account the current trends in the number of job offers, we expect that Unemployment will grow over the coming months. For December 2025, an unemployment rate of 6.0 percent is expected. With the number of unemployed 930 thousand people. In the local maximum (in February 2026), the unemployment rate will reach 6.3 percent. With the number of unemployed 985 thousand ” – added in the KIG report.
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The last time the registered unemployment rate exceeded 6 percent. He was in Poland in June 2021, and at 6.4 percent – In March 2021
However, these circumstances and those from four years ago are not comparable. Currently, the indicator is underestimated by a larger number of people retiring than more than four years ago. At that time, pensioners were decreasing in connection with Pandemia, now in August an increase of as much as 72 thousand. year on year. Retiring release jobs, which theoretically should improve the unemployment rate.
The Central Statistical Office said on Tuesday that the unemployment rate in August 2025 was 5.5 percent, compared to 5.4 percent. a month earlier.
According to the CSO data, the number of unemployed registered in labor offices in August was 856.3 thousand. To 830.6 thous. a month earlier. The number of newly registered unemployed was 96.8 thousand. against 108.4 thous. previously.
