Clarke warned that the current international relationship course is characterized by escalation. In his opinion, although this does not prejudge the outbreak of armed conflict, “the path that NATO and Russia follow, leads straight to the military confrontation.” The expert emphasized that such an event could be associated with the incident in sea waters, where the Royal Navy could be particularly vulnerable.
As potential scenarios suggesting escalation, Clarke mentioned acts such as the intersection of marine cables, illegal activities of Russian units or incidents involving submarines. One example could be a Russian tanker illegally unloading Energy raw materials. “In this case, we intercep him, direct it to the port, and send the crew to the country. He can then rust for years at the European port, while legal arrangements for his property will take place,” explained the analyst in the conversation. He also pointed out that Finland took similar actions to the Russian ship.
The expert also referred to the last violations of the airspace of NATO countries, including incidents with Russian drones over Poland. In his opinion, although the alliance can answer political declarations, such as strengthening air defense, the actual steps are not certain. This is not an unprecedented situation, because – as he reminded – from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine there were numerous violations of the borders of NATO countries.
Clarke sees the greatest threat on the part of the Kremlin in the region of the Baltic States. Among the countries most exposed to potential aggression, he mentioned Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, as well as Poland, Finland and Denmark.
