Will Trump use “nuclear” to sanctions against Russia? General NATO: “Otherwise, the war of wear will continue in 2025, probably in 2026”

President Trump and the head of the US Treasury, Scott Besent, support the transition to harsh sanctions against the “money making machine”, but insists that the EU will no longer buy Russian hydrocarbons. General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu explains the sustainability and impact of such a decision.

Without sanctions against Russia's money machine, the war will continue. Photo: Shutterstock

After the Alaska summit, the Russian army intensified attacks on Ukraine, including civilians. Moreover, the summit in China considered by Trump also took place an event that “plins against the US”. Again, it seems that the US president has upset Russia.

On the other hand, according to the US press, the US Defense Department has announced the military attachments of some European countries that the amounts allocated to the training and equipping programs of the Eastern Flank of NATO will be reduced and has sent notifications regarding the termination of cooperation memorandums regarding the detection and combating of malignant influence, through the False News, and by Rusia. coordinated for the destabilization of Western democracies.

After Russia's last Drone attack, in which Kiev's government buildings were hit, Trump threatened with sanctions in relation to Russian oil trade. The secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent proposed imposing tariffs on Russian oil buyers, emphasizing the importance of EU and US cooperation. Potential “secondary” type sanctions could also target third countries (eg India, China, Turkey) that continue the trade in Russian oil. The US president also had an important message for Europe, during a telephone call after the will coalition that took place last week in Paris: “Stop buying Russian oil.” European officials have argued that only Hungary and Slovakia are exempted from the prohibition imposed by the EU.

Here, however, both Hungary and Slovakia – which are exempted from the prohibition at the EU level on the purchase of Russian oil, look with hostility, the idea of ​​giving up imports from Russia. Their requests for derogations, economic arguments and solid political connections with Moscow make it difficult to change, even if there are technical paper alternatives.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó are in dissension with Brussels. There are non-Russian alternative routes-such as the Adria pipeline in Croatia, with an annual capacity of over 14 million tonnes, sufficient for the needs of Hungary and Slovakia. However, MOL (Hungarian energy company) warned that the change of sources involves high technical risks and costs.

Prime Minister Robert Fico and the Minister of Energy Denisa Saková criticized the EU plans to eliminate Russian imports by 2027, qualifying them as “absolutely unacceptable”. Despite the existence of the alternative infrastructure (such as Adria), the authorities consider the current terms too tight – proposing an extension of the adaptation period.

Then there is also the problem of sanctioning the largest Russian oil buyer- which could cause a hard commercial war for the US.

Bălăceanu: “Otherwise, the war of wear will continue in 2025, probably in 2026”

“Adevărul” discussed with the reserve general Virgil Bălăceanu, the one who represented Romania at the NATO Command in Brussels and was head of the Southeast Multinational Brigade, about the chances that, this time, Trump will impose important sanctions on Russian oil trade.

The truth: Given the mentioned context, will the Trump administration pass to sanctions on Russian oil trade? What are the factors on which this decision depends?

Virgil Bălăceanu: It depends on Trump's decision. The current data tell us that the American Treasury, through the head of the institution, the “Minister of Finance” of the US, would be prepared for the application of these sanctions. The chief of the treasury also says that only in accordance with the United States only in accordance with the European Union can they have efficiency in applying these sanctions, which are particularly aimed at the export of oil.

Ultimately, the United States has two ways to really reach the fire and an armistice. The two ways are the one mentioned, that is, sanctions that lead to the drastic diminution of the financial resources of the Russian Federation to financially support the war – the war needs special financial resources – respectively military support, information, logistical aid, supply of weapons and so on, to strengthen the defense, so that most of the offices the same offensive rhythm. It is true that the rhythm of the Russian army is not very dynamic, but it is constant and brings them certain territorial gains.

Only when the front in Ukraine stabilizes from the perspective of the offensive actions of the Russians and the Russians no longer have financial possibilities to maintain the military-industrial complex that supports the front with military equipment, ammunition and other categories of materials, will a little think about the cessation of fire and an armistice. Otherwise, the war of wear will continue in 2025, probably in 2026.

How will Hungary and Slovakia be convinced to give up Russian oil

In this context, the US asks Europe not to buy Russian oil anymore. Can Hungary and Slovakia be convinced to stop buying oil from Russia?

Things about Hungary and Slovakia are under question. It is clear that Hungary and Slovakia, through Orban and Fico, will not accept a decision of the European Union that Russian oil will no longer import into the EU. In contrast, if the United States – Hungary, the United States – Slovakia will be pressure, I do not know to what extent Orban and Fico will resist the pressures that come from President Trump. It will be an extremely complicated problem for them. Because, ultimately, not to respect, even inside the EU, a requirement that Trump will decide, that he has not yet decided, would mean an attitude of challenge towards Trump. And, such a thing should give the two of them.

On the other hand, China is the country that buys the largest amount of Russian oil. Will Trump pass to sanctions against China?

It is possible, but according to last -minute information, during a visit in the next period of Trump in South Korea, a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping is probable.

“Romania must prepare to adapt”

However, when we think about reducing funds allocated by the US for training and equipping the countries on the eastern flank, can we ask if there will be political will in the US to make the decision to sanction Russia? Can we even think of a retreat of American troops from Romania?

First, the measures concern the funds allocated for the training activities and for other activities related to the acquisition of military technique. There are no financial measures that will, at least for the moment, lead to a reduction in the herds of the American forces present in Romania.

Looking at the first point, Romania must prepare to adapt, taking into account a perspective of diminishing the common training activities or an elimination of these activities. But rather we have to go on the scenario to a diminution. We have had joint training and training exercises in the field of artillery, anti-aircraft defense, planning and cooperation, military interoperability, biological defense, in terms of leadership preparation. They concerned, for example, joint training with the military structures equipped with Himars, from the 8 artillery brigade, the activity that took place with the brigades constituted by the United States for such a purpose. We have the example of Brigade 4 of security forces assistance. And about such a brigade system, the European Union for further training of the Ukrainian army should also be set up. I had joint training with the Americans when the first real shootings were carried out in 2023 with Patriot systems, recently in August an exercise on the logistical support line carried out by US Army, Europe and Africa, Fire Shield SA Exercise, held in Cincu. There were also common activities for the fight against the biological agents carried out by the American military specialists and the Cantacuzino Institute. There were training activities for maritime operations carried out together by the special operations forces of Romania, especially the special operations forces together with American Seals type military structures. Leadership courses for non-commissioned officers were held, for example, in the basis of training the Air Force from Boboc.

All these programs have been financially supported by the United States and we can expect a decrease. On the other hand, I am convinced that if we pay, going on the principle that Trump wants to make a profit from anything, we could continue this training, but not on the money of the Americans, because these amounts will not be diminished.

But we are not talking, for the moment, a reduction of American herds in Romania.