“The target interest rate in Poland is 3.50 percent.”

The target interest rate in Poland is 3.50 percent. – Goldman Sachs analysts forecast. However, they indicate that increased uncertainty about geopolitics and global trade is a reason for caution in forecasts regarding monetary policy in a short -term perspective

“According to our pigeon approach to inflation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-4), we expect further, significant relief of monetary policy in EŚW countries, and our forecasts regarding interest rates remain much more pigeons than market valuation. Our forecasts indicate the final interest rate of 3.50 % in Poland Hungary, 2.75 percent

Analysts indicate, however, that increased external uncertainty – resulting from both American duties and regional geopolitical uncertainty – is a reason for caution in forecasts regarding monetary policy in a short -term perspective.

“This applies especially to Hungary and the Czech Republic, because their exposure to changes in trade (due to the importance of car production and capital goods for their economies) makes them most susceptible to American duties among CEE -4 countries” – wrote in the report.

“In Romania, we also expect that persistent inflationary uncertainty (resulting from VAT increases and the expiry of freezing of electricity prices) will cause that the reduction of interest rates in 2025 will be unlikely” – added.

The authors of the report point out that the impact of a potential suspension of weapons in Ukraine is uncertain and will largely depend on the details of the possible agreement and whether it will be considered permanent.

“In the event of an agreement that will be a real signal of a permanent peace, we would expect a significant strengthening of exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe, which would cause further inheritance pressure on the dynamics of inflation” – wrote in the report. (PAP Biznes)

Pat/ Ana/