According to Zandi, in July over 53 percent Of the approx. 400, industries observed by BLS (office statistics office) limited jobs, and healthcare remained a clear exception. According to him, this is a much explanatory signal, because In the past, when most industries lost employees, the economy was already in the recession.
Zandi's thesis is part of hard data from the labor market. The July report BLS showed only 73 thousand. new jobs and extremely large corrections of previous readings. May was reduced from 144 thousand. up to 19,000, and June from 147 thousand up to 14 thousand The effect is a three -month average of only 35 thousand. full -time jobs – level in accordance with the situation when the business cycle easily tilts towards the declines. Such large reviews of statistics usually appear at the turning points of the cycle and may mean that really employment is already decreasing.
At the same time, the so -called The soft landing has not been completely deleted. The GDPNN Federal Reserve from Atlanta in the last update still indicates an increase in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 at a rate of about 2.5 percent. on an annual basis, although it is A clear slowdown in relation to the second quarter. In other words, economic activity is still ongoing, but the labor market – usually the last bastion of strength in the cycle – begins to crackle.
The labor market is not an oracle
Zandi emphasizes that the unemployment rate itself can be a weak barometer of recession, especially when the size of the labor force stands in place due to immigration changes. At the micro level you can see shortening the work week and terminating recruitment in sectors sensitive to costs and demand, such as production, trade and construction. If these trends persist over the next months, the definition of recession – a long, wide drop in activity, including Employment and production – it may start to materialize faster than suggest some forecasts.
Economic policy is an additional accelerator. High duties and strengthening on the labor market as a result of immigration restrictions reduce companies 'margins and reduce employees' supply, and thus growth potential. Zandi does not rule out that even interest rate reductions could be late if a wide decline in employment has actually started.
In the past, the companies maintained employment during transitional slowdowns. However, when the demand for work slides with an increase in uncertainty, it usually announces the stage of cautious reducing costs.
What does this mean for enterprises and households? Companies can more carefully plan jobs and investments, focusing on productivity, automation and profitability of individual projects. Employees may more often experience reduction of working hours and slower wage growth, and rotation in sectors outside health care will remain limited. If the employment data for the next two or three months confirms the downward trend, the narrative with a soft landing will quickly give way to the diagnosis of a delayed recession.
