At the beginning of April, nothing heralded what was happening three weeks later. The market was all the time in the conviction that the Monetary Policy Council did not want to hear about interest rate reduction.
All thanks to previous press conferences of the NBP President. Adam Glapiński, contrary to the opinions of economists, maintained that there was no space for discounts, and he himself presented a fairly hawk position for the last few months.
Everything changed in the first week of April, so after the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. Although the MPC members did not change interest rates, something much more important happened.
– Considering the last data, it can be assessed that in the near future there may be a space for reduction of interest rates – said during a traditional press conference the head of the NBP, which heads the head of a ten -person RPP and in case a draw while voting, his opinion is decisive.
See also: President Glapiński speaks on inflation and interest rates. “Radical change”
The president asked if the reduction could take place in May or June, i.e. before the July projection (previously the market had seen at this moment as the start of discounts), he replied that Cutting can occur in May or in each subsequent month. “I come as a pigeon at the head of pigeons, the MPC is changing the position into more pigeons,” he surprised.
At the same time, he suggested that in his opinion a better option could be two decisions “adapting” interest rates of 0.50 percentage points this year. Anyway than starting a cycle (i.e. discounts at every meeting).
WIBOR
Around this moment, the market began to discount potential interest rate reductions. And WIBOR quotations, which is still crucial for thousands of borrowers, fell sharply. Within Less than three weeks, the three -month indicator decreased from 5.85 to 5.48 percent. And it still falls.
It is WIBOR that hundreds of thousands of Poles' loan agreements are based. When he falls, the loan interest rate is also automatically falling. Of course, depending on the variant, the update takes place every three or every six months.
– The first decline in installments will appear in May, because WIBOR rates began to fall significantly. For example, WIBOR 6M was 5.75 percent at the beginning of April, and now only 5.17 percent. In the case of a loan for PLN 500,000 for 30 years, with a variable interest rate based on a 2.15 percent margin. I WIBOR 6M, the installment will fall by PLN 234 – explains Jarosław Sadowski, director of the Analysis Department at Rankomat.pl.
However, this is not the end. The expert indicates that Financial institutions expect WIBOR 3M in nine months to be only 3.64 percent. It would be a decrease by as much as 2.21 pp compared to the beginning of April. Such data can be seen on term contracts.
WIBOR has been falling from the beginning of April and is unlikely to stop.
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Ranekkomat.pl
– If such a forecast worked, a loan installment with a variable interest rate – at 500 thousand. PLN for 30 years – would fall in February to 2,000 PLN 931, or PLN 738 – predicts Sadowski.
Nailed in a fixed foot
Potential reductions do not apply to those who have taken a loan in recent years based on a fixed interest rate. Those who decided to move with a relatively high reference rate can spit into the beard.
They have to wait until the permanent rate of the fixed rate is over to lower the interest rate. However, this can only happen in a few years. Another solution that can reduce the installment faster is the loan refinancing. As Jarosław Sadowski explains, in practice “this means taking a new loan with a lower interest rate that will be repaid. “
– As a result, the interest rate may fall, e.g. from 7.87 percent (average fixed interest rate in July 2024) to about 6.36 percent If the loan amount is 500 thousand. PLN, and the repayment period is 30 years, the installment will fall from 3,000. PLN 624 to 3 thousand PLN 114. If the refinancing were performed later – at an even lower interest rate – the decrease would be even greater. At a rate of 5.86 percent The installment would be 2,000 PLN 953, and at 5.36 percent – PLN 2,795 – says Jarosław Sadowski.
