publication
2025-04-11 08:50
The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China has contributed to a rapid increase in gold prices. Only for the last 48 hours the royal metal has increased over $ 200 on the ounce.
In front of our eyes, what could only happen a few months ago only in the imagination of more creative Goldbugs. Well, dollar gold prices without any clearly specific reasons are rising $ 100/OZ per day.
On Wednesday morning, the ounce of royal metal was valued less than $ 2,990. And on Friday night we already had a new record at an altitude of almost USD 3,240/OZ. – i.e. by 250 USD/OZ more (or if you prefer: by 8.4%). Before 2024, such a “barbaric relic” movement was able to take months or even years. But for some time gold – or at least its stock prices – has become much faster than before.
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Since the beginning of the year, dollar gold quotations went up by nearly 22% after they increased by 27.2% in 2024 by up to 13.2% a year earlier. Within just over 5 years, the “barbaric relic” course expressed in USD has doubled and notes the highest levels in history.
It is worth knowing what we mean by “gold price”. On Bankier.pl, we publish the most active (i.e. with the largest number of open items) of a series of contracts and currently they are future
falling in June 2025. And they are listed higher than the “nearest” contract expiring in April. Some websites give the listing of a contract expiring at the earliest and hence the difference comes from.
In addition, for the first time in nearly half a century, the game is also setting new records in real terms. This is because after taking into account only the “official” CPI inflation for the United States, the record of January 1980 remains unbearable. Then 850 USD/oz. In February 2025 it would be worth nearly USD 3,500 – according to the inflation calculator of the Government Office of Labor Statistics.
What is played on the gold market?
In daily reports, analysts most often justify record -breaking gold valuations with several factors. First of all, it is a massive demand for royal metal on the part of central banks. Only the National Bank of Poland itself bought almost 50 tons for the first three months of 2025. Secondly, yellow metal is bought by investors both through ETF/ETN funds as well as in the form of physical bars and coins.
The increase in investment demand is explained by the US President Donald Trump's call of the World Customs War and the escalation of trade conflict with China. This causes violent reactions of capital markets driven by fear of recession or even a deep economic crisis. And for the latter central banks in recent decades, just cut off interest rates, thus accelerating the rate of decline in the purchasing power of the fiducian money.
And maybe the last risk is the main driving force that drives gold prices in recent weeks and months. Over the previous 17 years, we have learned that today every crisis is “printed” with trillions of freshly created dollars, euros or yen. One of such a printing Fiat currency system may simply not withstand and then it is better to have something more tangible in the wallet, which no power can provide in any quantities. This something are, among others Gold and other ores (but also actions and real estate).
It is also worth adding that in April new nominal gold price records were also established in Polish currency. The price of the ore for the first time in history exceeded PLN 12,000 and the author of this message had to re -expand the scale in the chart below.
It is worth adding that the above chart illustrates the “stock exchange” price of gold. That is the course of the nearest series of timely contract for gold multiplied by the current USD/PLN exchange rate. To become the owner of a physically existing golden bars and coins, you need to add the cost of beating, transport and the dealer margin to this price.
