The announcement of the summit of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin overshadowed something much more important, which is happening behind the scenes of the “Theater” in Alaska – Russian economy.
In July, Russia took 502 sq km of Ukraine. This is a pace similar to the one from May and June and one of the highest last year, according to the Black Bird group, monitoring the conflict. However, Russia feels less safe on the economic front. Her energy income dropped by 20 percent. Year on year during the first seven months due to the falling prices of crude oil and new Trump duties on India, and this further increases pressure.
– The Russian economy is weaker today than ever in the last three years – says Janis Kluge, expert for the Russian economy at the German Institute of International and Security (SWP), in an interview with the Financial Times (FT).
And the problems of the Russian economy mean that Putin also needs a peak in Alaska.
From the initial hope for a quick reach of the agreement, the frustrated Trump, for the first time since the office, began to facilitate significant weapon transfers to Kiev and threaten Indiom for the purchase of Russian oil. The authorities in Nowy Delhi buckled under pressure.
Just two days before the expiry of Trump's ultimatum towards Russia (suspension of weapons or sanctions) Putin was invited to Alaska.
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It is quite possible that Putin agreed to the top now only to start the new phase of “dragging” Trump, writes Aktuality.sk. However, what the Russian leader cannot “stop” is the Russian economy. Putin's resources to wage war just exhaust.
The meeting of Trump and Putin is only a cover for what is happening in the background, the sources of the Slovak website say.
What will Russia expect at Alaska?
Coming to Alaska with such facilities – a strong position on the battlefield, but a weaker economy – Russia will probably want to immediately abolish sanctions as part of a possible peace agreement (as well as the territorial concessions of Ukraine).
Responsible Statecraft (Internet magazine Quincy Institute) writes that The Russian economy is at a critical turning point and that Moscow needs negotiations with Trumpto end the war, just like Ukraine.
Different indicators in June indicate that the general economy seems to be relatively stable in the short period, but the recession may be on the horizon.
After the start of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin used budget expenditure and anti -nichest funds, but the funds taken at the end of 2024 in order to maintain the war economy led to overheating the economy and uncontrolled inflation. The continuation of the slowdown in the first half of 2025 contributed to the increase in the budget deficit.
“Inflation has pierced the roof”
According to the British magazine Time – if Putin does not end the war, he threatens to suffer his own country with inflation.
As Trump himself noted, inflation in Russia “pierced the roof”, and its annual level is approaching 10 percent. Basic necessities become unacceptable expensive. Inflation of milk and dairy products is about 20 percent, bread approx. 15 percent, and fruit and vegetables approx. 30 percent. Russian interviewers admit that 58 percent The Russians indicated rising prices as its main problem, while only 33 percent. It indicated the war of Russia in Ukraine, “Time reports.
The central bank predicts that inflation will reach 6-7 percent. by the end of 2025, and ultimately 4 percent By the end of 2026, lower inflation will help weaken the Russian ruble, which inhibited trade. The size of the ruble by 45 percent He made him one of the strongest currencies in the world relative to the American dollar, but also led to the price of Russian exports, which fell by 6 percent. compared to the same period last year.
After more than two years of stable growth, the Russian economy is in the recession.
According to Aktuality.sk Even pro -Russian analysts provide for economic recession in 2026. Russia's central bank is expecting an annual growth of 1-2 percent. in 2025 and almost 1 percent In 2026, despite the optimism of the Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund recently reduced its Russian GDP growth forecast to 0.9 percent. in 2025 and 1 percent in 2026
According to Statecraft, activities aimed at lowering inflation and stimulating business investments should ensure Moscow's economic stability, which he needs to continue achieving his goals in Ukraine at least until 2026 – if necessary. However, after 2026, the question arises whether the Russian economy will be able to rebuild enough to force peace in Ukraine and at the same time achieve its goals.
What next?
The peak in Alaska is already seen as the victory of the Kremlin, the Russian economy and global financial markets.
– says CNBC Richard Ports, head of the Economy Department at London Business School.
Analysts say that The economic situation in Russia is not serious enough to change Putin's attitude to Ukraine.
– Putin's threats are a symptom of Trump's frustration. Putin is more worried about Trump's growing frustration than the effects of new sanctions, “said Kluge.
Given the deteriorating economic situation of Russia, Trump has all the advantages in Alaska, while Putin has no, he writes “Time”. If Trump decides to tighten sanctions and pressure on Russia, Putin may run out of money, perhaps even until the end of the year.
Putin's bluff can see the light of day, but only if Trump has been playing his cards well and does not withdraw too quickly. However, he must know that going to a meeting without preparation resembles a game in Russian roulette.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
