Gorbulin and Badrak analyze warfare technology changes in the Russia-Ukraine war
Origin of the Book’s Concept
In a comment to an online publication, Badrak explained that the inspiration for the book arose from events in Saudi Arabia. In September 2019, ten homemade drones used by Houthi forces successfully targeted oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which were equipped with advanced American missile defense systems that ultimately failed. This incident prompted an analysis of how to gain a technological advantage over a more powerful adversary. In 2020, Gorbulin authored a book titled “How to Defeat Russia in the War of the Future,” where he accurately predicted that 90% of the scenarios from Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine would align with his strategies of utilizing mass, technologically advanced, and cost-effective weaponry against the expensive systems of the enemy, according to Badrak.
Insights from ‘War of the Future’
The book explores the technological advancements in the Russia-Ukraine conflict from 2022 to 2025 and their profound impact on global military science. Key discussions include:
- How Ukraine’s ‘mosquito strategy’ and the widespread use of inexpensive drones can deplete the costly defensive systems of adversaries.
- The diminishing dominance of traditional tanks and helicopters and the emergence of AI-controlled ‘kill zones’ on the battlefield.
- Innovative hybrid developments like FrankenSAM and the transformation of maritime drones into effective hunters of aircraft and naval vessels.
- The role of space-based reconnaissance and weaponry based on new physical principles (lasers, electromagnetic pulses) becoming a reality in modern warfare.
- The growing interest among leading global armies in learning from Ukraine’s experiences.
Badrak highlighted that under the current geopolitical circumstances, Putin, with the backing of Xi Jinping, has effectively undermined the global security system, leaving the West unprepared for potential threats. He emphasized the ongoing importance of missiles as the primary weapon in global warfare, proposing that Ukraine, in collaboration with Europe, should focus on developing strike missiles capable of hitting large targets. Furthermore, he noted the blurring lines between missiles and drones, anticipating that competition between them will intensify.
Badrak concluded that future conflicts will likely be fought by small autonomous groups of humans and robots, equipped with advanced intelligence and offensive capabilities, capable of conducting multi-domain operations. He cautioned that traditional frontlines may be replaced by ‘grey zones’ where human survival becomes nearly impossible.
Context
The foreword of “War of the Future” was written by the then-head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, General Kirill Budanov, who currently leads the President’s Office. He remarked that Ukraine has not only transformed the external nature of warfare but has also influenced global military strategies, from the US to Japan. Budanov noted that most countries are rapidly rearming, looking for ways to create affordable yet effective weaponry in light of Ukraine’s experiences, which have introduced a new phenomenon of mass-produced, low-cost, yet technologically advanced weaponry capable of exhausting expensive military systems. He emphasized the need for continued adaptation and advancement in military capabilities as the future unfolds.
