The Kremlin is approaching a critical moment in the war in Ukraine, and delaying a strategic decision risks turning the Russian military's personnel crisis into an uncontrollable problem. According to Danish military analyst Anders Nielsen of the Royal Danish Defense College, Russia is currently losing more soldiers at the front than it manages to recruit through contract.
Russian soldiers on the front in Ukraine/PHOTO: Profimedia
The expert claims that the situation is aggravated by the constant attacks of Ukrainian drones on the infrastructure behind the front, strikes that affect the logistics and the ability of the Russian army to support military operations.
In Nielsen's view, Vladimir Putin has virtually only four major options for continuing the war, each with serious risks for the Kremlin.
1. Total mobilization: the option preferred by the Russian generals
The most likely scenario remains a large-scale mobilization in Russia. According to the analyst, the Kremlin could relatively quickly call up another 300,000 to 500,000 people.
However, even such a mobilization would not solve the structural problems of the Russian military and would not guarantee victory in the war. Instead, the economic and social costs would become huge.
Nielsen believes that this option would put the most pressure on the Putin regime, but it is quite possible that the Russian leader will be pushed in this exact direction by the military leadership.
2. Freezing the front, the convenient scenario for the Kremlin
The second option would involve a de facto freeze on the front line and limiting attacks on energy infrastructure — both Russian refineries and the Ukrainian energy system.
According to the expert, this would be the most advantageous solution for the internal stability of the Kremlin and, at the same time, one of the most difficult situations for Ukraine.
A prolonged conflict without decisive developments, however, would continue to consume the resources of both states and affect the economies of Russia and Ukraine in the long term.
3. Actual armistice and abandonment of original objectives
The third scenario would mean a genuine armistice and, implicitly, the Kremlin's abandonment of the idea of total victory.
In this version, Russia would also accept the legal return of the four occupied regions under Ukraine's sovereignty — a step that would mark a radical change of position for Moscow.
The Danish analyst argues that such a compromise could save the Russian economy and respond to the population's growing war weariness.
4. Attack on NATO, the most risky option
The most radical scenario analyzed is a direct military escalation against NATO, through a limited incursion into the Baltic states.
According to Nielsen, the purpose of such an operation would be to intimidate Europe and force the West to reduce or stop military support for Ukraine.
However, the expert warns that a firm reaction from NATO could quickly cause the Kremlin regime to collapse.
The analyst believes that Putin is unlikely to choose the most logical and least expensive option, as the Russian leader continues to believe in what he perceives as the “mission” of conquering Ukraine.
Under these conditions, the Kremlin seems to be moving towards the scenario of a new mobilization, even if it involves major risks for Russia's internal stability.
The personnel crisis forces Moscow to look for new sources of recruitment, including abroad. According to the information cited by the analyst, Russia would have already recruited approximately 28,000 foreign citizens to participate in the war in Ukraine.
Africa has become one of the main recruiting centers for Russian mercenaries. Recruiters promise high salaries and take advantage of economic difficulties in several African states to lure people to the front in Ukraine.
