Inflation in February was 2.1%. on an annual basis, and prices increased by 0.3% compared to January. Pachucki noted that these data were consistent with his earlier forecasts. According to him, core inflation, which in December last year was 2.7 percent, dropped in January to 2.6-2.5 percent, and in February to 2.5-2.4 percent.
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— However, the beginning of the year for inflation is already history. Inflation today looks towards the Strait of Hormuz – said the economist. He recalled that approximately 20 percent of water flows through this strategic route. global oil and gas trade. The freight blockade caused by the US and Israeli military operation against Iran has dramatically increased hydrocarbon prices, which translates into increased inflation globally, including in Poland.
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Stabilization in the shadow of conflict
Despite the tense situation, there are signs that may somewhat alleviate the effects of the crisis. Pachucki pointed to U.S. actions such as escorting tankers, providing transportation insurance and the release of about one-third of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency. He also added that Iran may allow the passage of tankers from selected countries. — However, there is still no possibility of ending the conflict in the near future – he noticed.
According to the economist, if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes at the end of March, a reduction in oil prices is possible in April and May. This, in turn, could translate into a slowdown in price growth in the summer. However, as he emphasized, the situation remains very volatile and another escalation cannot be ruled out.
Central banks in wait mode
Pachucki does not expect central banks around the world to decide to increase interest rates in the near future. — The “wait-and-see” strategy is the most likely, he said. He noted that if geopolitical tensions subside, central banks could consider cautious reductions in the cost of money in the fall, depending on the further course of inflation.
The turmoil in the oil market and its impact on the global economy remains one of the key challenges for monetary policy and price stability in the coming months.
