100 days of Donald Trump's presidency are a time of numerous summaries of his previous actions. The confusion in the duties and the abandonment of existing alliances has damaged trust in the United States. The economy also breaks the ricochet and is increasingly talking about the upcoming recession. The legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio says directly: it's too late, the changes are coming.
Donald Trump provides global markets with solid variability almost every day. You can't complain about boredom, and the decisions sometimes seem to be taken chaotically.
Experts have no doubt that Donald Trump manipulates the market in a sense because he makes decisions and at the same time publishes entries regarding the situation on the stock exchange, but he is unlikely to bear the consequences in this respect – said at the beginning of April the analyst DM BOŚ Konrad Ryczko.
The economic Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warned that the volatility and unpredictability of President Donald Trump's policy paralyzes American business and threatens that the “moment of Lehman Brothers” would be repeated, in which the fall of this bank became the beginning of the financial crisis.
Dalio: The world economic order is collapsed
The investor and billionaire Ray Dalio believes that he is “too late” to counteract the economic effects of Trump's duties and says that the global economic order, whose center is the United States, is collapsed.
“Based on many of my indicators […] It seems that we are on the verge of a collapse of the monetary order, national policy and international world order due to unbalanced, bad foundations ” – he wrote in the post on the X Ray Dalio portal.
“We are more and more aware that the role of the United States as the largest consumer of industrial goods in the world and the largest manufacturer of debt assets for financing excessive consumption is unstable” – he added.
“There is a growing risk that the United States, imposing challenges to solve, will be increasingly avoided by the world of countries that will adapt to this separation from the US and create new connections developing outside them” – warns Dalio.
The saddest thing in the entire history of the US customs versus the rest of the world is that Trump could be lied to the duties and the fact that he can still believe this lie.
3. In history, the worst 100 days of the new US president for S&P 500
The first 100 days of Trump's rule was marked by a stock swing. The S&P 500 index reached a record level in February, and in March reduced the quotations. However, a powerful discount came at the beginning of April, when the US President announced the “Liberation Day” and duties on almost all countries in the world. The quotation was reached on April 8, when SP 500 was on the threshold of entering the bear market. However, the situation was changed by one tweet and subsequent speech of Trump.
However, this does not change the fact that the S&P 500 index still loses 7.27% from the date of Trump's inauguration on January 20. According to Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the reference index has lost $ 3.66 trillion in market value since the inauguration of Trump.
Analysts agree that The previous results of the S&P 500 index in the second term of Trump were the third worst result during the first 100 days of the president's term in the history of the US, giving way to Presidents Richard Nixon and Ford.
“I do not remember the time when the politics was so directly focused on economic results, where it was received so negatively, commonly widely received by the investment community,” says Kelly Bouchillon, a senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors. “I think that this is the greatest uncertainty we have seen around the profits and the growth of enterprises for some time, all self -made by the administration,” she added.
Donald Trump's trade war, his chaotic decisions and attempts to release the head of the FED initiated a new trend on global markets – “Sell America” (sell America); Investors get rid of US bonds, shares and run away from the dollar.
The bonds also hit a lot
Although share prices were characterized by high volatility, American tax bonds suffered a significant defeat in the first 100 days of Trump's office. Usually, when investors sell shares in times of uncertainty, they invest cash in US tax bonds, looking for security of assets that have full support and trust of the US government.
However, when at the beginning of April, share prices around the world fell, investors began to sell out American tax bonds rapidly, which caused questions about how much American government bonds value as a safe haven.
The sale of bonds and an increase in their profitability scared the White House that the president suspended the duties. As he told Trump journalists at the time: “The bond market is doing well. It had a small moment (turmoil), but I solved this problem very quickly. I am very good in these matters.”
The billionaires turn away from Trump? “Destroys the US brand and our bonds”
“The United States is more than a nation. It is a brand. It is a universal brand, regardless of whether it is our culture, our finances or our military strength […] Now we are destroying this brand, “said billionaire Ken Griffin, who until now ardently supported the Republicans and generously exposed checks to their campaigns, including this Donald Trump.
“The perspective of limiting by foreign investors exposure to American assets in the midst of concern about the persistent dominance of American treasury bonds as a safe marina has found herself at the market of market debate in the last few weeks,” said CNN Vishwanath Tirupattur, a strategist in Morgan Stanley.
