2026-02-28 12:46, updated 2026-02-28 15:41
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2026-02-28 12:46
update
2026-02-28 15:41
The price of a barrel of oil after the escalation in the Middle East may reach up to $150 in the most pessimistic scenario. – assessed specialists from the Scandinavian bank SEB in a Saturday analysis for the Norwegian website e24. Analysts presented four possible variants of the development of the situation on the oil market.
In the first scenario, bank specialists assume a quick resumption of talks and an agreement on the nuclear program. In such a case, Iranian oil could return to the market widely and the price of a barrel could fall below $60.
In the “TACO” variant, i.e. “Trump Always Chickens Out”, the bank predicted a silencing of the rhetoric without a full-scale war, but also without a breakthrough agreement. Then oil prices could drop to around $60.
The third scenario assumed limited military actions by the US and Israel and a moderate response from Tehran. In such a situation, the price of a barrel may increase to USD 80-90, after which a correction would occur as the voltage drops.
The most pessimistic variant is a long-term escalation and a threat to the transport of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key oil export routes in the world. Such a development could cause panic in the markets and increase prices to as much as USD 100-150. per barrel.
This level of crude oil prices and a corresponding increase in the prices of other fuels would result in unplanned additional income for their exporters. Norway, which after the Russian aggression against Ukraine became the main supplier of gas to Europe, has earned an additional approximately USD 300 billion since 2022 thanks to the increase in oil and gas prices, according to analyzes by Nordea bank.
Harald Magnus Andreassen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 Markets, warned, however, that record increases in oil and gas prices will not be beneficial for their producers in the long run.
“The global economy is much more than fuel prices. If the conflict with Iran is prolonged, it will have a clearly negative impact on global growth,” concluded Andreassen.
Expert: The weekend saved us from panic. Critical Monday for oil prices
The attack on Iran was carried out on Saturday, when there are no oil prices; If there were quotations, there would be panic on the market – fuel market analyst Jakub Bogucki from the e-petrol portal told PAP. pl. He added that oil prices will increase on Monday, but it is difficult to assess the scale for now.
On Saturday morning, the US and Israel attacked Iran. US President Donald Trump, in a video released shortly after the attacks began, said US forces were conducting a “massive and sustained operation” targeting Iran's military. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also spoke about the attack on Iran.
– The attack was carried out on Saturday, a day when there are no oil prices. If there were quotations, the reaction would probably be panic. But on Monday, investors will know more, for example whether there was any damage to the oil infrastructure and whether the transit of oil was disrupted, fuel market analyst Jakub Bogucki from e-petrol told PAP. pl.
He recalled that it was similar in the case of the US attack on Venezuela, where the attack was also carried out on Saturday. At that time, the markets hardly reacted, but the analyst emphasized that oil exports from Venezuela were small.
Main risk: The Strait of Hormuz is not only about Iranian oil
– Here we are dealing with a conflict whose consequences for the situation on the oil market may be much more serious. This is not only about the consequences related to Iran's oil exports, but also about the possibility of paralysis of oil supplies as a result of a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to physical shortages of oil. – said Bogucki. – The market will definitely react on Monday with an increase in oil prices, the only question is how much – he added.
On Friday, on the ICE exchange, WTI crude oil contracts for April delivery were valued at $67.23 at the end of trading. per barrel, which means an increase of just over 0.3%. The same Brent crude oil contracts on this exchange cost $72.52 on Friday. per barrel, after an increase of just over 0.05%.
Rogalski: The reaction to the US and Israeli attack on Iran will be an increase in oil prices
On Monday, crude oil prices may increase by several percent, then the market will analyze what can be expected next – Marek Rogalski, chief market analyst of DM BOŚ, told PAP. He added that Saturday's attack on Iran was a surprise because the market was focusing on March 7-8.
On Saturday morning, the US and Israel attacked Iran. US President Donald Trump, in a video released shortly after the attacks began, said US forces were conducting a “massive and sustained operation” targeting Iran's military. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also spoke about the attack on Iran.
– Although crude oil prices increased on Thursday evening and Friday, this attack is still a surprise, as the market was preparing for the next weekend, March 7-8 – Marek Rogalski, chief market analyst of DM BOŚ, told PAP.
In his opinion, the reaction to this attack will be an increase in oil prices by several percent; then the market will analyze what may happen next.
Rogalski believes that further oil prices will depend on whether, according to investors, the attack will last a short time or whether it will be a longer-term conflict. If investors believe that the conflict will last for a short time, then – according to the economist – “oil price peaks will come sooner rather than later.”
-Historically, the dollar has strengthened in times of conflict. And I think this principle still applies. It was recently visible that some investors were heading towards the dollar, which was visible in the demand for American bonds, said Marek Rogalski.
– So on Monday, oil went up, the dollar went up, and probably gold also went up, which some investors still consider a safe haven, although in my opinion it no longer serves this function due to the scale of speculation on this metal, he added.
From Oslo Mieszko Czarnecki
ms/pad/
