“The dollar must still fall” – believes the chief economist Goldman Sachs quoted by Reuters. According to Jan Hatzius, dollar, battered and battered by uncertainty related to customs tariffs in the USA and fears of recession, still has a lot to lose.
The agency calculates that the dollar lost over 4.5 percent in April, which is The largest monthly decline from the end of 2022. This year it fell by 8 percent. In relation to the basket of other main currencies.
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In Poland, the dollar exchange rate was about PLN 3.75 on Thursday afternoon. This is a large exit compared to January, when the quotations reached up to PLN 4.20.
“Investors get rid of American assets, causing Crisis of confidence in the reserve currency No. 1 in the world” – we read in Reuters.
Economist Goldman Sachs admits that he often avoids questions about the dollar. He indicates that extensive scientific literature and his own experience as economic forecast have taught that predicting exchange rates is even more difficult than predicting economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Despite this “I humbly think that the recent depreciation of the dollar by 5 % in a wide range of weighted trade has a lot to do before.”
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Dollar history and meaning to the world
Reuters draws attention to the historical references made by Hatzius, who notes that two historical periods with similar values of the dollar as today – mid -1980s and the beginning of the 21st century – prepared The land for weakness by 25-30 percent
Despite everything, according to Hatzius, the dollar weakness should not be confused with the loss of the status of the reserve currency. “Unless there is extreme shocks, we think that The advantage of the dollar as a global means of exchange and means of storage of value is too strong for other currencies to overcome it” – I'm writing.
